{"id":26318,"date":"2015-01-10T10:06:49","date_gmt":"2015-01-10T18:06:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=26318"},"modified":"2015-01-10T10:06:49","modified_gmt":"2015-01-10T18:06:49","slug":"the-commodity-crash-playbook-a-long-overdue-rewrite-and-revision","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/01\/10\/the-commodity-crash-playbook-a-long-overdue-rewrite-and-revision\/","title":{"rendered":"The Commodity Crash Playbook: A Long Overdue Rewrite and Revision"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 5, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Three and a half years ago, I started a series that I called “the Commodities Crash Playbook” in an effort to take advantage of an investing and economic theory promoted by money manager Jeremy Grantham. {snip}<\/p>\n

I was so convinced by this story that I decided to put my own investing and trading wrapper on Grantham’s work. I started with a two-part piece titled “Preparing for Profits in a Resource-Constrained World<\/a>” and “Profiting from Physical Assets in a Resource-Constrained World – Rules and Picks<\/a>.” {snip}<\/p>\n

Moreover, China’s imminent economic collapse has proven to be one of the most highly anticipated calamities of the cabal dabbling in apocalyptic thinking. There will be a LOT of eager and many postponed “I told you so”‘s whenever it is China’s economy takes a notable stumble. Regardless, this seeming “resilience” of the Chinese economy started a rethink on the commodities crash playbook. {snip}<\/p>\n

As it turned out, Grantham wrote his letter, and I developed my wrapper, just as commodities had indeed hit a peak. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The peak in 2011 in commodities was a failure to return to pre-recession highs<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n
\"Even<\/a>
Even agriculture as index peaked in 2011<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"iShares<\/a>
iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust is a common commodity index but it appears overly influenced by oil prices<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource for charts: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

While the declines looked synchronized, each commodity had unique and interesting stories and drivers. It was impossible for me to identify a unifying theme except that prices were in a sustained, albeit volatile, decline. However, as the U.S. dollar index (UUP) continued to rise, it finally dawned on me that currency and monetary dynamics could be a core driver, something that Grantham did not contemplate. In fact, it was not until the dollar index failed to weaken in the aftermath of QE3 that it I truly absorbed what could be underway.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The U.S. dollar index responded as expected to QE2 but NOT QE3<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Yet, even with the unifying foreign exchange theme, it is difficult to draw direct correlations. {snip}<\/p>\n

Some of my lessons have been learned the hard way. Rare earths delivered one of my most forceful lessons. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The fall from grace for rare earth related stocks<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

REMX includes “strategic metals” that are not rare earths, but the ETF still serves the illustrative purpose. There were some times to ride high where short-term trades worked out exceptionally well, but overall, I was forced to essentially admit defeat by early 2013. I never did write an official mea culpa, so THIS rethink piece will have to do. The height of my hubris came in a piece I wrote called “Seagate Not Likely to Find ‘Ruthenium-Like’ Relief From Soaring Rare Earth Prices<\/a>.” {snip}<\/p>\n

Indeed, rare earths imploded in many worse ways that I will not repeat here. Suffice it to say that this experience helped me grow a healthy skepticism about the sustainability of high commodity prices. Importantly for the commodities crash playbook, I could not point to an implosion in China’s economy as a core driver for rare earths. {snip}<\/p>\n

The tipping point which crystallized my new thinking came in February 10, 2014 after listening to a podcast on Econ Talk<\/a> titled “Paul Sabin on Ehrlich, Simon and the Bet<\/a>.” The podcast included a discussion about the market dynamics of commodities where innovation continues to produce surprising sources of supply, methods of supply substitution, and adaptations in demand. {snip}<\/p>\n

{snip} <\/p>\n

As they say, timing is everything. With commodities swinging widely from one extreme to another, such an adage could not hold more true.<\/p>\n

The final milepost on the way to a rewrite of my rules came in the form of a timely December 2nd article in Seeking Alpha (hat tip to a friend of mine): “Don’t Buy And Hold Commodities, Trade Them<\/a>.” {snip}<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

So, with that expansive background, here are my new, and hopefully improved, trading rules for the commodity crash playbook. At the playbook’s core, I retain an assumption that a global, economic calamity will eventually take commodity prices much lower, but I now hold no expectation or projection on when or where it will start or even how widespread or significant the event will become. (And to be clear, I would greatly prefer a world where economic calamities never occur). I retain a STRONG preference to OWN rather than sell (short) commodities. Readers should consider this a lingering bias from my wariness over the ultimate impact of global monetary policies that have flooded the world with paper currencies with more to come.<\/p>\n

{snip{<\/p>\n

Meta-rules<\/strong>: STAY OPPORTUNISTIC, RESPECT TRENDS, AND DEVELOP DEEP KNOWLEDGE<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Short-term<\/strong>: THE TREND REMAINS BEARISH BUT WATCH FOR BOTTOMING PROCESSES<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Medium-term<\/strong>: EAT AGRICULTURE<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

Wildcard<\/strong>: WATCH OUT FOR CURRENCIES AND MONETARY POLICY<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The U.S. dollar has certainly seen much better days. If the current bottoming process is actually bringing an end to the long-term decline in the greenback, all bullish bets on commodities are subject to SERIOUS reconsideration!<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 5, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long EEM put options, long REMX, long CORN, long NIB, long ERY, long call options in JOY, long BAL, short the Australian dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 5, 2015. Click here to read the entire piece.) Three and a half years ago, I started a series that I called “the Commodities Crash Playbook” in an effort to take advantage of an investing and economic theory promoted by … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,199,20],"tags":[308,630,64,613,685,635,636,637,299,1195,1477,309,1478,835,1323,1033,1032,949,1480,1479,362,669,500],"class_list":["post-26318","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-china","category-commodities","category-forex","tag-audusd","tag-bal","tag-cat","tag-ccj","tag-commodities-crash-playbook","tag-corn","tag-dba","tag-de","tag-dxy0","tag-eem","tag-ery","tag-fxa","tag-gsg","tag-joy","tag-nib","tag-qe2","tag-qe3","tag-remx","tag-rja","tag-rji","tag-spy","tag-stx","tag-uup"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Commodity Crash Playbook: A Long Overdue Rewrite and Revision - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/01\/10\/the-commodity-crash-playbook-a-long-overdue-rewrite-and-revision\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Commodity Crash Playbook: A Long Overdue Rewrite and Revision - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on January 5, 2015. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) Three and a half years ago, I started a series that I called “the Commodities Crash Playbook” in an effort to take advantage of an investing and economic theory promoted by ... 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