{"id":26180,"date":"2014-12-23T09:28:06","date_gmt":"2014-12-23T17:28:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=26180"},"modified":"2014-12-23T09:29:21","modified_gmt":"2014-12-23T17:29:21","slug":"lesson-zulily-versus-xly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/","title":{"rendered":"A Hard Lesson in Indexing: zulily Versus Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF"},"content":{"rendered":"

I have already written a mea culpa<\/a> on zulily, Inc. (ZU). However, I feel that my trade on this stock was so bad, it deserves a SECOND one… especially since as I write, the stock is down about 8% in what looks like continuation selling from November’s post-earnings breakdown and gap down. The stock is apparently responding to a negative analyst report claiming that new customer activations have slowed<\/a>. <\/p>\n


\n
\"Zulily<\/a>
Zulily continues to disappoint with continuation selling<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

As a reminder, back in July, I offered up ZU as a way to play seasonal strength in the consumer discretionary sector for the second half of the year<\/a>. At the time, I thought ZU was starting to form a nice, consolidative base as a recovery from the expiration of its IPO lock-up period. That base developed for the next four months until the big breakdown. Meanwhile, the index I should have directly bought, Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) first rallied and out-performed. Next, ironically enough, XLY greatly underperformed as it sold off with the rest of the market in September and October. While I used this opportunity to bullishly buy into the dip with ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO) shares<\/a>, I completely failed to go after XLY.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Consumer<\/a>
Consumer Discret Sel Sect SPDR ETF (XLY) comes back strong just in time to print a seasonally strong second half<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I find it further ironic that SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT), a more focused and targeted play on consumer discretionary that conceptually includes ZU, outperformed XLY over mst of the entire second half.<\/p>\n


\n
\"SPDR<\/a>
SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) outperforms Consumer Discret Sel Sect SPDR ETF (XLY) through most of the second half<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource for charts: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The lesson here is simple: when setting up a trade to profit from a pattern in an index, trade the index directly! Do not focus in on one member of that index or, even worse, focus just on a stock within the related sector. I learned this lesson in 2012 with T2108 (the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages)<\/a> and the S&P 500 (SPY). Unfortunately, I did not apply that same lesson in this case. It is certainly OK to make a more focused trade, but it has to be a small part of the larger index-related trade.<\/p>\n

Lesson learned (again).<\/p>\n

In the meantime, I am continuing to wait out the pessimism on ZU and see whether the company can make amends in its next earnings report. If not, I will have to let it go…<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long ZU<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I have already written a mea culpa on zulily, Inc. (ZU). However, I feel that my trade on this stock was so bad, it deserves a SECOND one… especially since as I write, the stock is down about 8% in what looks like continuation selling from November’s post-earnings breakdown and gap down. The stock is … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,338],"tags":[328,327,326,282,1374,1378],"class_list":["post-26180","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-retail","tag-consumer-discretionary-select-sector-spdr-etf","tag-spdr-sp-retail-etf","tag-xly","tag-xrt","tag-zu","tag-zulily"],"yoast_head":"\nA Hard Lesson in Indexing: zulily Versus Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Hard Lesson in Indexing: zulily Versus Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"I have already written a mea culpa on zulily, Inc. (ZU). However, I feel that my trade on this stock was so bad, it deserves a SECOND one… especially since as I write, the stock is down about 8% in what looks like continuation selling from November’s post-earnings breakdown and gap down. The stock is ... Read more\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-12-23T17:28:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2014-12-23T17:29:21+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/141223_ZU.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr. Duru\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"headline\":\"A Hard Lesson in Indexing: zulily Versus Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-12-23T17:28:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2014-12-23T17:29:21+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":466,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/141223_ZU.png\",\"keywords\":[\"Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF\",\"SPDR S&P Retail ETF\",\"XLY\",\"XRT\",\"ZU\",\"zulily\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Breakdown\",\"Retail\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/\",\"name\":\"A Hard Lesson in Indexing: zulily Versus Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/141223_ZU.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2014-12-23T17:28:06+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2014-12-23T17:29:21+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/141223_ZU.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/141223_ZU.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2014\\\/12\\\/23\\\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"A Hard Lesson in Indexing: zulily Versus Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/\",\"name\":\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\",\"description\":\"Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":[\"Person\",\"Organization\"],\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\",\"name\":\"Dr. Duru\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg\",\"width\":900,\"height\":100,\"caption\":\"Dr. Duru\"},\"logo\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/www.drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/drduru_market_breadth\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/drduru\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"A Hard Lesson in Indexing: zulily Versus Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"A Hard Lesson in Indexing: zulily Versus Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","og_description":"I have already written a mea culpa on zulily, Inc. (ZU). However, I feel that my trade on this stock was so bad, it deserves a SECOND one… especially since as I write, the stock is down about 8% in what looks like continuation selling from November’s post-earnings breakdown and gap down. The stock is ... Read more","og_url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/","og_site_name":"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","article_published_time":"2014-12-23T17:28:06+00:00","article_modified_time":"2014-12-23T17:29:21+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/141223_ZU.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Dr. Duru","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@drduru","twitter_site":"@drduru","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Dr. Duru","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/"},"author":{"name":"Dr. Duru","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0"},"headline":"A Hard Lesson in Indexing: zulily Versus Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF","datePublished":"2014-12-23T17:28:06+00:00","dateModified":"2014-12-23T17:29:21+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/"},"wordCount":466,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/141223_ZU.png","keywords":["Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF","SPDR S&P Retail ETF","XLY","XRT","ZU","zulily"],"articleSection":["Breakdown","Retail"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/","name":"A Hard Lesson in Indexing: zulily Versus Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/141223_ZU.png","datePublished":"2014-12-23T17:28:06+00:00","dateModified":"2014-12-23T17:29:21+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/#primaryimage","url":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/141223_ZU.png","contentUrl":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/12\/141223_ZU.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/12\/23\/lesson-zulily-versus-xly\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"A Hard Lesson in Indexing: zulily Versus Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#website","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/","name":"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","description":"Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0","name":"Dr. Duru","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","width":900,"height":100,"caption":"Dr. Duru"},"logo":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/onetwentytwo","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/","https:\/\/x.com\/drduru"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26180","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=26180"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26180\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26188,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26180\/revisions\/26188"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=26180"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=26180"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=26180"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}