{"id":26099,"date":"2015-01-01T16:02:53","date_gmt":"2015-01-02T00:02:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=26099"},"modified":"2015-01-01T16:02:53","modified_gmt":"2015-01-02T00:02:53","slug":"the-canadian-dollar-and-oil-an-imperfect-partnership","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/01\/01\/the-canadian-dollar-and-oil-an-imperfect-partnership\/","title":{"rendered":"The Canadian Dollar And Oil: An Imperfect Partnership"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

A year ago, the Canadian dollar (FXC) hit my then annual 1.08 target for the USD\/CAD currency pair. I next contemplated setting a much more aggressive year-long target of 1.16<\/a>. In February of this year, I made that target official<\/a>. This past week, the Canadian dollar (FXC) hit my 1.16 target on USD\/CAD. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The U.S. dollar has steadily gained over the Canadian dollar since this summer’s bottom<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Instead of generating an even higher target for next year or early 2016, I have finally turned bullish on the Canadian dollar<\/a>. For me, the earlier decline in the Canadian dollar helped strengthen the Canadian economy through a resuscitation of exports. As this is happening, the unemployment rate is finally showing notable improvement again. Add in healthy GDP growth<\/a>, I felt justified in finally turning bullish on the Canadian dollar even ahead of achieving my 1.16 target for USD\/CAD.<\/p>\n

This bullishness of course looks out of step with the on-going collapse in oil prices (USO)…<\/p>\n


\n
\"Oil<\/a>
Oil makes a rare attempt at a bottom: buying volume on United States Oil ETF (USO) soars<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

…and the persistent strength of the U.S. dollar index (UUP) since the summer…<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The U.S. dollar index is up over 10% since the end of June<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

The conventional assumption says that Canada has a commodity-driven economy and thus has a “commodity currency.” However, in September for example, “mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction” was just 8.4% of GDP<\/a>. “Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting” was another 1.5%. Energy as a sector is 9.7% of GDP. (Granted, these numbers do not untangle dependencies across sectors or address the heavier dependence of certain provinces on commodities). {snip}<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Oil<\/a>
Oil versus USD\/CAD – almost mirror images of each other<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The exact correlations tell a more nuanced story. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Oil<\/a>
Oil and the Canadian dollar: not quite synchronized<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource for data: St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The weekly correlations are consistently stronger (more negative) than the daily correlations…{snip}<\/p>\n

The following scatterplot further emphasizes the lack of a strong (inverse) correlation between USD\/CAD and oil (WTI).<\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A “tendency” for USD\/CAD and oil to trade in opposite directions but definitely NOT a strong (inverse) correlation<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource for data: St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

I also checked for the potential of a one-day or one-week timelag in the correlation with oil as the cause and USD\/CAD as the effect. I consistently found absolutely no correlation across all the years since 2009. This finding suggests that the direct correlations are at least meaningful.<\/p>\n

The overall lesson here is that the Canadian dollar COULD weaken further on lower oil prices, but there is a lot more to the story especially when measuring the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. If Canada’s economy continues on its path of strengthening as I expect, the drama unfolding in the oil patch will become more and more of a sidebar rather than the main plot line.<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The Canadian dollar is still locked in a downtrend from the post-crisis peak in 2011<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: short USD\/CAD<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 21, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) A year ago, the Canadian dollar (FXC) hit my then annual 1.08 target for the USD\/CAD currency pair. I next contemplated setting a much more aggressive year-long target of 1.16. In … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[235,199,20,21],"tags":[296,299,536,1591,469],"class_list":["post-26099","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-canada","category-commodities","category-forex","category-u-s-dollar","tag-canadian-dollar","tag-dxy0","tag-oil-2","tag-u-s-dollar","tag-usdcad"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Canadian Dollar And Oil: An Imperfect Partnership - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/01\/01\/the-canadian-dollar-and-oil-an-imperfect-partnership\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Canadian Dollar And Oil: An Imperfect Partnership - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on December 21, 2014. 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