{"id":25695,"date":"2014-11-26T20:36:54","date_gmt":"2014-11-27T04:36:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=25695"},"modified":"2014-11-26T20:36:54","modified_gmt":"2014-11-27T04:36:54","slug":"t2108-update-141126","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/11\/26\/t2108-update-141126\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (November 26, 2014) – FINALLY Overbought, Essentially (including Chart Reviews of DE and INTC)"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are sometimes posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 69.99%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 54.6%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 12.1
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold (bullish positions)
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #28 over 20%, Day #26 over 30%, Day #23 over 40%, Day #21 over 50%, Day #16 over 60% (overperiod), Day #98 under 70% (underperiod)<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nSo tantalizing part 2.<\/p>\n

Hard to believe, but, yes, T2108 closed at 69.99% today.<\/p>\n


\n
\"T2108<\/a>
T2108 continues to tease along the overbought threshold<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

This is a rounding away from 70% and so essentially represents overbought, especially after T2108 first crossed the 70% threshold 3 days ago and scraped along it since. Because my code that calculates historical relationships defines overbought strictly as 70.0% and above, I am not starting the counter just yet. For trading purposes, this milestone of 69.99% is definitely good enough to trade as if T2108 is overbought. Refer to the last T2108 Update<\/a> for related trading rules. <\/p>\n

The S&P 500 closed strong at its high of the day and a new closing all-time high. It did not beat out the intraday high though.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Looks<\/a>
Looks like yet more room to run for the S&P 500<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The VIX is continuing its downtrend as it hit 12.1%. Since a major fade from the 15.35 pivot last week, the VIX has been going down in a straight line by steady and nearly equal increments. There is still a short runway to go lower still. I have not shown the destructive impact on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures (UVXY) in a while. Too bad I have not focused on put options on UVXY over the past week…<\/p>\n


\n
\"UVXY<\/a>
UVXY still knows no bottom<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Or maybe I should have just stayed long ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures (SVXY):<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The “right” way to play volatility…although it is very likely to print a lower high soon<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Even the Australian dollar (FXA) versus the Japanese yen (JPY) has turned sharply upward. AUD\/JPY bounced nicely off the psychologically important 100 level in what is starting to look like a hammer bottom that signals an end to the downward pressure. Good thing I used the opportunity to buy and did not jump on the bearish warning<\/a> right away.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Keeping<\/a>
Keeping a close eye on developments with AUD\/JPy as it could provide THE key signal for whether the overbought period is short-lived and bearish or long-lived and bullish<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Charts of the day go to post-earnings Deere & Company (DE) and post analyst day Intel (INTC).<\/p>\n

Deere & Company (DE) remains perfectly trapped between its 50DMA on the low side and its 200DMA on the high side. Earnings did not resolve the stalemate. In fact, it highlighted the stalemate by touching BOTH ends of the range on the day. DE now has my attention, and I am assuming a breakout, whether up or down, will likely be the start of a strong and sustained move in the given direction. Advantage is likely with the bulls given the 50DMA is now sloping upward.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Deere<\/a>
Deere & Company (DE) is on the edge of what could (should) be a major breakout or breakdown<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Almost nothing says “bullish stock market” better than Intel (INTC) at or around 14 year highs. Absolutely amazing. ‘Nuff said.<\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A very bullish run from a post-earnings gap down<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"It's<\/a>
It’s a different Intel this time<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

My strategy to trade INTC between earnings continues to work very well…except this time I bailed far too early!<\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center>Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO shares, long NFLX put spread<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,20,219,43,796,62],"tags":[772,310,637,1454,222,221,138,1453,65,1363,225,226,1597,1092],"class_list":["post-25695","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-forex","category-high-tech","category-industrial-sector","category-semiconductors","category-technical-analysis","tag-audjpy","tag-australian-dollar","tag-de","tag-deere-company","tag-intc","tag-intel","tag-japanese-yen","tag-proshares-short-vix-short-term-futures","tag-sp-500","tag-svxy","tag-t2107","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-uvxy"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (November 26, 2014) - FINALLY Overbought, Essentially (including Chart Reviews of DE and INTC) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/11\/26\/t2108-update-141126\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (November 26, 2014) - FINALLY Overbought, Essentially (including Chart Reviews of DE and INTC) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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