{"id":25556,"date":"2014-11-17T20:42:39","date_gmt":"2014-11-18T04:42:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=25556"},"modified":"2014-11-18T18:05:33","modified_gmt":"2014-11-19T02:05:33","slug":"t2108-update-141117","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/11\/17\/t2108-update-141117\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (November 17, 2014) – Apple Watch: An Important Fade from All-Time Highs?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are sometimes posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 63.3%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 51.6%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 14.0
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold (bullish positions); aggressive bears can short with a tight stop at fresh all-time highs
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #21 over 20%, Day #19 over 30%, Day #16 over 40%, Day #14 over 50%, Day #9 over 60% (overperiod), Day #91 under 70% (underperiod)<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThe wait for a resolution between the forces of a bearish divergence and a bullish coiled spring<\/a> continue even as the S&P 500 (SPY) continues making very marginal closing all-time highs. <\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A fifth straight day of essentially going nowhere<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2108 however, is sagging a bit. Today, it slipped slightly again to close at 63.3%. This continues a slight (bearish) divergence from the S&P 500. The volatility index, the VIX, is marginally adding to the bearish interpretation of the divergence as it continues to creep higher during this period; note however that the VIX gapped up and faded today.<\/p>\n

This all leaves us in a wait and see mode. Perhaps Apple (AAPL) holds the key to resolution.<\/p>\n

Apple’s stock printed an ominous blow-off pattern today with a gain as much as 0.8% when it hit a fresh all-time intraday high of $115.09. If AAPL continues selling off from here, traders should assume a top is firmly in place with a 50DMA retest in play. Such a move would remove an important partner in the bullish interpretation of the market action. Two important caveats: 1) the daily chart seems to have a poor print with the high going over $117 – I used the intraday chart to get the true high; 2) volume was below average and even below some of the recent buying – a blow-off top is much more convincing when volume surges because it more closely signals the potential last gasp of buyers and the exhaustion of buying power.<\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A blow-off top for AAPL?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

So now the “Apple Watch” has taken on a new meaning, and I will be watching more vigilantly than ever. The Apple Trading Model<\/a> (ATM) is projecting 69% odds of upside for Tuesday. Note well though that the ATM does NOT take into consideration chart patterns or highs of the day (just opens and closes). <\/p>\n

Here is one big investor\/trader who will be VERY relieved to see a top in Apple here:<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
\n

I am listening to the bullish spin on APPL and I cant share the enthusiasm, sorry Appleheads. $AAPL<\/a><\/p>\n

— Douglas Kass (@DougKass) October 28, 2013<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n