{"id":25350,"date":"2014-11-06T23:24:58","date_gmt":"2014-11-07T07:24:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=25350"},"modified":"2014-11-06T23:24:58","modified_gmt":"2014-11-07T07:24:58","slug":"apple-drives-australian-retail-sales-trade-balance-worsens-and-reserve-bank-stays-steady","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/11\/06\/apple-drives-australian-retail-sales-trade-balance-worsens-and-reserve-bank-stays-steady\/","title":{"rendered":"Apple Drives Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance Worsens, and Reserve Bank Stays Steady"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 4, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2634245-apple-drives-australian-retail-sales-trade-balance-worsens-and-monetary-policy-makes-no-moves\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Tuesday morning in Australia was a busy time for economic news.<\/p>\n<p>First, the <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/latestProducts\/8501.0Media%20Release1Sep%202014\" target=\"_blank\">Australian Bureau of Statistics<\/a> reported that the release of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone 6 helped drive electrical and electronic goods retailing to a record 9.2% growth. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure style=\"width: 387px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/be4aa82cd8cf7f07ca2570d60018da27\/e4e550c6d554ff0aca257734002043f3\/Body\/0.6E8!OpenElement&#038;FieldElemFormat=gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/be4aa82cd8cf7f07ca2570d60018da27\/e4e550c6d554ff0aca257734002043f3\/Body\/0.6E8!OpenElement&#038;FieldElemFormat=gif\" width=\"397\" height=\"227\" alt=\"Australian retail sales (\"turnover\") look ready for another ramp to end the year\" class \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Australian retail sales (&#8220;turnover&#8221;) look ready for another ramp to end the year<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\nSource: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/Latestproducts\/8501.0Main%20Features2Sep%202014?opendocument&#038;tabname=Summary&#038;prodno=8501.0&#038;issue=Sep%202014&#038;num=&#038;view=\" target=\"_blank\">Australian Bureau of Statistics<\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>On the flip side, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/mf\/5368.0?OpenDocument\" target=\"_blank\">the Australian Bureau of Statistics<\/a> reported that Australia&#8217;s balance of goods and services fell further in September&#8230;{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure style=\"width: 171px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/a866861f12e106e0ca256a38002791fa\/a5fb33bd2e3cc68fca257496001547a1\/Body\/0.1D50!OpenElement&#038;FieldElemFormat=gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/a866861f12e106e0ca256a38002791fa\/a5fb33bd2e3cc68fca257496001547a1\/Body\/0.1D50!OpenElement&#038;FieldElemFormat=gif\" width=\"181\" height=\"231\" alt=\"Australia's balance of goods and services continues to plunge \" class \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Australia&#8217;s balance of goods and services continues to plunge<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\nSource: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/mf\/5368.0?OpenDocument\" target=\"_blank\">Australian Bureau of Statistics<\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>This whipsaw in good and then bad news was reflected in the intraday reaction of the Australian dollar (FXA). {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_25353\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-25353\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/141103_AUDUSD-5min.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/141103_AUDUSD-5min.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar rocks up and down and up again on important economic news\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-25353\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/141103_AUDUSD-5min.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/141103_AUDUSD-5min-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-25353\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar rocks up and down and up again on important economic news<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The RBA said nothing new in issuing its November policy statement. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>With the market&#8217;s expectation for a rate cut in the next month increasing only slightly, I am expecting the Australian dollar to continue to hold its bottom for 2014 to close out the year, all else being equal. The ever strengthening U.S. dollar is of course a key wildcard. Relatively benign trading in the Australian dollar should also be supportive of other risk trades in financial markets.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.asx.com.au\/prices\/targetratetracker.htm\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.asx.com.au\/data\/trt\/ib_graph.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"220\" alt=\"Expectations for a rate cut jump but the odds remain relatively low\" class \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Expectations for a rate cut jump but the odds remain relatively low<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.asx.com.au\/prices\/targetratetracker.htm\" target=\"_blank\">The Australian stock exchanges&#8217;s RBA Rate Indicator &#8211; December 2014<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_25354\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-25354\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/141103_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/141103_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The 2014 low continues to hold for the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-25354\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/141103_AUDUSD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/141103_AUDUSD-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-25354\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The 2014 low continues to hold for the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 4, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2634245-apple-drives-australian-retail-sales-trade-balance-worsens-and-monetary-policy-makes-no-moves\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net long the Australian dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 4, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) Tuesday morning in Australia was a busy time for economic news. First, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the release of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone 6 helped drive electrical and &#8230; <a title=\"Apple Drives Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance Worsens, and Reserve Bank Stays Steady\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/11\/06\/apple-drives-australian-retail-sales-trade-balance-worsens-and-reserve-bank-stays-steady\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,59,338],"tags":[308,310,309,1305],"class_list":["post-25350","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-economy","category-retail","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-fxa","tag-retail-sales"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Apple Drives Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance Worsens, and Reserve Bank Stays Steady - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/11\/06\/apple-drives-australian-retail-sales-trade-balance-worsens-and-reserve-bank-stays-steady\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Apple Drives Australian Retail Sales, Trade Balance Worsens, and Reserve Bank Stays Steady - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 4, 2014. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) Tuesday morning in Australia was a busy time for economic news. First, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the release of the Apple (AAPL) iPhone 6 helped drive electrical and ... 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