{"id":25266,"date":"2014-10-29T01:53:10","date_gmt":"2014-10-29T08:53:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=25266"},"modified":"2014-10-29T01:54:47","modified_gmt":"2014-10-29T08:54:47","slug":"oil-has-been-a-poor-leading-indicator-for-recessions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/10\/29\/oil-has-been-a-poor-leading-indicator-for-recessions\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Has Been A Poor Leading Indicator for (Recent) Recessions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Every time oil drops these days, I notice hand-wringing about whether the fall indicates a recession is somewhere close on the horizon. There is an intuitive appeal to this assumption. Oil is still an engine of economic activity, so declining prices must indicate falling demand. What seems to be &#8220;different&#8221; this time is a true supply glut that has now been exacerbated by Saudi Arabia&#8217;s refusal to cut supply to put a floor under prices. No matter what dynamics are underway now, the recent history shows that changes in oil prices are a very poor leading indicator for recent recessions. In fact, if anything, a period of sharply RISING prices seems to be a better alarm bell for a recession.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_25267\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-25267\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_Oil.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_Oil.png\" alt=\"Oil is falling but remains at relatively &quot;elevated&quot; levels from the post-recession recovery\" width=\"550\" height=\"365\" class=\"size-full wp-image-25267\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_Oil.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_Oil-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-25267\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Oil is falling but remains at relatively &#8220;elevated&#8221; levels from the post-recession recovery<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?g=P5p\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_25268\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-25268\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_OilYearOverYearChange.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_OilYearOverYearChange.png\" alt=\"Year-over-year changes in oil&#039;s price do not provide a discernible pattern relative to recent recessions\" width=\"550\" height=\"365\" class=\"size-full wp-image-25268\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_OilYearOverYearChange.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_OilYearOverYearChange-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-25268\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Year-over-year changes in oil&#8217;s price do not provide a discernible pattern relative to recent recessions<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?g=P9C\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>So, enjoy this early Christmas present of lower oil and gasoline prices. The average consumer is.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_25270\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-25270\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_DBO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_DBO.png\" alt=\"Is it almost time to BUY PowerShares DB Oil ETF (DBO) as it approaches a major point of support?!\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-25270\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_DBO.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/10\/141028_DBO-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-25270\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Is it almost time to BUY PowerShares DB Oil ETF (DBO) as it approaches a major point of support?!<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/platform\/v1\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Every time oil drops these days, I notice hand-wringing about whether the fall indicates a recession is somewhere close on the horizon. There is an intuitive appeal to this assumption. Oil is still an engine of economic activity, so declining prices must indicate falling demand. What seems to be &#8220;different&#8221; this time is a true &#8230; <a title=\"Oil Has Been A Poor Leading Indicator for (Recent) Recessions\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/10\/29\/oil-has-been-a-poor-leading-indicator-for-recessions\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[377],"tags":[539,536,1434,41],"class_list":["post-25266","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-oil","tag-dbo","tag-oil-2","tag-powershares-db-oil-etf","tag-recession"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oil Has Been A Poor Leading Indicator for (Recent) Recessions - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/10\/29\/oil-has-been-a-poor-leading-indicator-for-recessions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Oil Has Been A Poor Leading Indicator for (Recent) Recessions - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Every time oil drops these days, I notice hand-wringing about whether the fall indicates a recession is somewhere close on the horizon. 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