{"id":25102,"date":"2014-10-18T11:01:52","date_gmt":"2014-10-18T18:01:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=25102"},"modified":"2014-10-18T11:44:46","modified_gmt":"2014-10-18T18:44:46","slug":"t2108-update-141017","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/10\/18\/t2108-update-141017\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (October 17, 2014) – The Technical Case for A Bottom"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are sometimes posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 21.3% (ends 6-day oversold period, the 3rd oversold period in 12 trading days)
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 34.2%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 22.0 (gap down from failed attempt to hold 2012 highs, 21 is the buy signal)
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Shorts should exit when\/if 200DMA resistance gives way (should have already taken profits during the oversold period!); aggressive traders OK to take some profits on longs bought during oversold period; conservative traders can continue to wait for 200DMA resistance to fail, not worth the risk to enter upon end of oversold period. See below for details.
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #1 over 20% (ends 6-day oversold period), Day #19 under 30%, Day #25 under 40%, Day #27 under 50%, Day #29 under 60%, Day #71 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nSometimes, good technical fundamentals are exactly what you need to maximize your trading…<\/p>\n

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Woulda Shoulda Coulda! I shoulda stayed with long rentals yesterday in market without memory from day to day!. Market Neutral.<\/p>\n

— Douglas Kass (@DougKass) October 17, 2014<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n