{"id":24725,"date":"2014-09-29T20:19:06","date_gmt":"2014-09-30T03:19:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=24725"},"modified":"2014-09-29T20:29:58","modified_gmt":"2014-09-30T03:29:58","slug":"t2108-update-140929","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/09\/29\/t2108-update-140929\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (September 29, 2014) – Oh So Close to Oversold and “Close Enough” To A Buy?"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are sometimes posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>. T2107 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 23.7%
\nT2107 Status<\/strong>: 45.1% (exactly matches 7 1\/2 month closing low set on Friday)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 15.98
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold (TRADERS REMAIN READY FOR WIDE SWINGS)
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #318 over 20% (includes day #280 at 20.03%, day #318 low at 20.25%), Day #5 under 30% (underperiod), Day #11 under 40%, Day #13 under 50%, Day #15 under 60%, Day #57 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nSo today delivered the gap down I was looking for on Friday<\/a>. Still, T2108 did not quite reach oversold territory. It got as low as a tantalizing 20.03%. <\/p>\n


\n
\"Close<\/a>
Close enough? Tantalizingly close to oversold before bouncing<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2107 also dipped. Unlike T2108, its intraday recovery only took it back to last Thursday’s close.<\/p>\n


\n
\"T2107<\/a>
T2107 bounces but remains at a major low for the year<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The question now of course is whether this drop was “close enough” to triggering oversold conditions. The move off the bottom was too quick for me to react intraday. Moreover, I prefer a CLOSE in oversold conditions before lining up my trades on oversold conditions. To add to my hesitancy, the major indices, the S&P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ (QQQ), are struggling at their 50-day moving averages (DMAs). <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 bounces right back to the 50DMA after gapping down<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nNote that the S&P 500 does not show the proper open. SPY shows the gap down.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The NASDAQ struggles to hold onto 50DMA support<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Finally, on the positive side, the VIX, the volatility index, gapped up and then failed to beat the high from August 1st that marked the peak of the last sell-off.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The VIX fades right at resistance but remains above 15.35 pivot<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

So, on balance, the trading call remains on HOLD yet again. IF the indices manage a solid close above the 50DMA -meaning a close above Thursday’s high as well – I will feel comfortable assuming that oversold conditions are behind us. Ironically, I will feel even MORE comfortable initiating buys if the S&P 500 generates some more palpable fear with a large spike in the VIX, a T2108 below 18% (the low from the last sell-off), and even an S&P 500 that cracks September’s low. Stay tuned!<\/p>\n

<\/center>Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center>Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: net short the Australian dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[62],"tags":[65,225,226,1597,303,931],"class_list":["post-24725","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-t2107","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (September 29, 2014) - Oh So Close to Oversold and "Close Enough" To A Buy? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/09\/29\/t2108-update-140929\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (September 29, 2014) - Oh So Close to Oversold and "Close Enough" To A Buy? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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