{"id":24713,"date":"2015-04-01T19:53:49","date_gmt":"2015-04-02T02:53:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=24713"},"modified":"2015-04-01T19:53:49","modified_gmt":"2015-04-02T02:53:49","slug":"shift-income-demo-home-loans","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/04\/01\/shift-income-demo-home-loans\/","title":{"rendered":"A Potentially Important Shift In Income Demographics for Home Loans"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2526685-a-potentially-important-shift-in-income-demographics-for-home-loans\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I have written before that home builders have focused on building for higher income buyers and mortgage financing has been restricted to the well-off. It turns out things are not quite as bad as I thought.<\/p>\n<p>Last week, the U.S. Federal Reserve posted a pre-release of an article for its Bulletin called &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/pubs\/bulletin\/2014\/pdf\/2013_HMDA.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">The 2013 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act Data<\/a>&#8221; (HDMA). Here is the Fed&#8217;s description of the HMDA:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_24715\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-24715\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HomeLoanDistributionByIncome.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HomeLoanDistributionByIncome.png\" alt=\"Distribution of home loans across demographic groups, by income level (2004\u201313)\" width=\"550\" height=\"399\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24715\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HomeLoanDistributionByIncome.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HomeLoanDistributionByIncome-300x217.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-24715\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Distribution of home loans across demographic groups, by income level (2004\u201313)<br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source of data: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/pubs\/bulletin\/2014\/pdf\/2013_HMDA.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The different colors in the stacked bars represent income levels defined as follows: &#8220;Low- or moderate-income borrowers have income that is less than 80 percent of estimated contemporaneous area median family income (AMFI), middle-income borrowers have income that is at least 80 percent and less than 120 percent of AMFI, and high-income borrowers have income that is at least 120 percent of AMFI.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>I placed the middle income demographic at the bottom of the bar because it has remained relatively steady over the ten years provided. {snip} Note that high income borrowers came back with a vengeance in 2013 as the median sales price of a U.S. home soared back to, and past, its pre-recession peak (note carefully that the chart below represents an aggregation across ALL homes sold):<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_24717\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-24717\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_MedianSalesPriceOfHousesSold.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_MedianSalesPriceOfHousesSold.png\" alt=\"Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States\" width=\"550\" height=\"365\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24717\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_MedianSalesPriceOfHousesSold.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_MedianSalesPriceOfHousesSold-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-24717\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Median Sales Price of Houses Sold for the United States<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?g=LI1\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_24718\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-24718\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HomePurchaseLoans.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HomePurchaseLoans.png\" alt=\"Number of home-purchase loans (2004-2013)\" width=\"550\" height=\"399\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24718\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HomePurchaseLoans.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HomePurchaseLoans-300x217.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-24718\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Number of home-purchase loans (2004-2013)<br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source of data: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.federalreserve.gov\/pubs\/bulletin\/2014\/pdf\/2013_HMDA.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">U.S. Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The implications of the shift in income demographics for mortgages are difficult to determine with certainty without more detailed data. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_24721\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-24721\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HousingAffordabilityIndex.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HousingAffordabilityIndex.png\" alt=\"Overall housing affordability at a post-recession low but remains much better than before the recession\" width=\"550\" height=\"365\" class=\"size-full wp-image-24721\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HousingAffordabilityIndex.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/140928_HousingAffordabilityIndex-300x199.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-24721\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Overall housing affordability at a post-recession low but remains much better than before the recession<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?g=LIE\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2526685-a-potentially-important-shift-in-income-demographics-for-home-loans\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) I have written before that home builders have focused on building for higher income buyers and mortgage financing has been restricted to the well-off. It turns out things are not quite &#8230; <a title=\"A Potentially Important Shift In Income Demographics for Home Loans\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/04\/01\/shift-income-demo-home-loans\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1174,35],"tags":[1593,437],"class_list":["post-24713","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-demographics-2","category-housing","tag-housing","tag-mortgage"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Potentially Important Shift In Income Demographics for Home Loans - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2015\/04\/01\/shift-income-demo-home-loans\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Potentially Important Shift In Income Demographics for Home Loans - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2014. 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