{"id":24304,"date":"2014-09-07T18:26:32","date_gmt":"2014-09-08T01:26:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=24304"},"modified":"2014-09-07T18:32:14","modified_gmt":"2014-09-08T01:32:14","slug":"t2108-update-140905","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/09\/07\/t2108-update-140905\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (September 5, 2014) – Close Call As the S&P 500 Avoids Bearish Follow-Through"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 59.1%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 12.1%
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold (Bullish)
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #303 over 20% (includes day #280 at 20.01%), Day #17 over 40%, Day #14 over 50% (overperiod), Day #2 under 60%, Day #43 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nMarket conditions turned a bit ominous at the close of trading on Wednesday, September 3rd<\/a>. I was on the lookout for follow-through. Sure enough, the next day, sellers were able to send the S&P 500 (SPY) and the NASDAQ (QQQ) down again, even if marginally. In particular the NASDAQ broke its primary uptrend by closing below the first Bollinger Band (BB). On Friday, the S&P 500 came roaring back from initial selling to close with a fresh all-time closing high. The NASDAQ suddenly found itself slightly under-performing as its comeback did not wipe out the bearish read from Wednesday.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 wipes out bearish tidings in one swift intra-day reversal<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The NASDAQ’s comeback still leaves the index contending with an ominous bearish engulfing pattern<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

This is what I call a close call. On Friday morning, I was mentally writing an incrementally more bearish stock market update. Instead, I am now writing a mixed piece that maintains the bullish bias in the trading call. There is one caveat: T2108 is still well off its recent high for this cycle.<\/p>\n

T2108 closed at 59.1%. It was as high as 65.5% on Wednesday before the market faded. This behavior is not a bearish divergence because T2108 closed with a gain, not a loss. What has my attention right now is T2108 lagging the S&P 500. The lagging takes on more weight with the NASDAQ’s performance and loss of its primary uptrend. It is not likely such lagging can persist for long without the S&P 500 reversing, so I am “on alert.”<\/p>\n

Finally, traders must pay closer attention to currency markets if they have gotten in the habit of ignoring them. I wrote a related piece called “The U.S. Dollar Is Strong But…What About Carry?<\/a>” In particular, the ECB’s push to ramp up liquidity in the eurozone economy provides a fresh source of funds to fuel more trades, more investments, and even less volatility. Weary bears are facing an army with supply lines restocked, re-fortified, and ammunition for as far as the radar can see. I think the resolution of these new battle lines will become pretty apparent in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The U.S. dollar index finally breaks out<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[62],"tags":[413,65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-24304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-technical-analysis","tag-nasdaq","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (September 5, 2014) - Close Call As the S&P 500 Avoids Bearish Follow-Through - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/09\/07\/t2108-update-140905\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (September 5, 2014) - Close Call As the S&P 500 Avoids Bearish Follow-Through - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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