{"id":24258,"date":"2014-09-03T22:54:10","date_gmt":"2014-09-04T05:54:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=24258"},"modified":"2014-09-03T22:59:25","modified_gmt":"2014-09-04T05:59:25","slug":"t2108-update-140903","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/09\/03\/t2108-update-140903\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (September 3, 2014) – Quick Chart Updates including Apple’s Doubly-Ominous Print"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 61.5%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 12.4%
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold (Bullish)
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #301 over 20% (includes day #280 at 20.01%), Day #15 over 40%, Day #13 over 50% (overperiod), Day #40 under 60%, Day #41 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nPost-summer trading is still crawling along but excitement continues to roil under the covers. This T2108 is more of a quick chart update given T2108, the S&P 500 (SPY), and the VIX all barely budged. The S&P 500 actually managed a fresh intra-day all-time high before fading back toward 2000. It remains in a bullish zone.<\/p>\n

However, the story starts to get more complicated as soon as I turn the lens to Apple (AAPL). Over the weekend, I updated my sentiment analysis on AAPL and concluded with four points of caution<\/a>. I did not have a specific day or time for a pullback, but I sure did not imagine one so sharp, sudden, and deep all in one day and well in advance of the September 9th product announcement!<\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A massive and sudden rejection of AAPL from all-time highs<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

As much as I like Apple, this selling has to be taken seriously no matter the reason. It was an outsized loss at -4.2% that occurred on heavier than usual trading volume. Buyers have a major hurdle to overcome here, and now the bar is REALLY high for AAPL’s product announcement to dazzle and amaze. I purely speculated on a relief bounce by buying up some call options. I am looking for a move at least back toward $100 for this week and a late run-up into September 9th next week. I also bought put options that I flipped very quickly into the selling. I did not use the Apple Trading Model<\/a> (ATM) for these trades. The ATM is predicting very high odds of follow-through selling for Thursday, so it is very possible I attempt to flip put options again after the open. (The model was invalid for Wednesday given the Monday holiday).<\/p>\n

Of course it is far too early to weep over Apple. A steady 50DMA and even stronger 200DMA await below to provide support if needed. If the (near-term) bullish thesis remains intact, Apple will more drift toward support levels rather than plunge into them.<\/p>\n

The plunge in Apple (AAPL) was enough to punch a potentially ominous bearish engulfing pattern into the NASDAQ (QQQ), creating a kind of double-trouble for tech. Since the index found support at the bottom of its uptrending trading channel, I am NOT calling a top or changing my trading signal to short. But another close in the red will have me raising a red flag. I just wish T2108 were in overbought territory to make a bearish call easier. After all, the trading action on Tuesday had me convinced that the indices still have a lot more upside immediately ahead<\/a>.<\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A bearish engulfing pattern shows up on the NASDAQ – the first potentially bearish signal in a month<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

To round out the red side of the ledger, Splunk (SPLK) faded hard on the day, a loss of 4.9% that was as high as 6.5% or so. THIS is the kind of move I expect when a stock runs up so far above its upper-Bollinger Band (BB). Note well how neatly the stock bounced off that upper-BB. While I was supposed to be stopped out of my short position as I attempted a fade<\/a> a day early, I think the lesson here is to perhaps pace out fades of particularly strong bursts above the upper-BB.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The big fade of over-extended Bollinger Band conditions came one day later than expected<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

On the more bullish side, Baidu (BIDU) followed-through as I expected from Tuesday’s impressive breakout from a BB-squeeze. Note how BIDU failed to hold the highs after extending well above the upper-BB. Regardless, I was definitely left wishing my limit order to sell my BIDU calls had gone unheeded on Tuesday.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Baidu<\/a>
Baidu (BIDU) buying follows through but quickly stalls as it extends above the upper-BB again<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Finally, Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) is following through almost exactly as I had hoped when I posted about the trade setup on August 25th<\/a>. As soon as MNST manages to trade on the other side of the first BB, I think its upward momentum should really take off.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Monster<\/a>
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) ends its post-deal slide right at the anticipated spot, but it has not yet traded above the desired trendline<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long AAPL call options, long MNST call options, short SPLK<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,483,1129,219,599,512,338,511,62],"tags":[250,534,759,760,1059,1058,65,1335,1416,226,1597],"class_list":["post-24258","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakdown","category-food-retail","category-high-tech","category-internet","category-resistance","category-retail","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-baidu","tag-bidu","tag-mnst","tag-monster-beverage-corporation","tag-sp-500","tag-splk","tag-splunk","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (September 3, 2014) - Quick Chart Updates including Apple's Doubly-Ominous Print - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/09\/03\/t2108-update-140903\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (September 3, 2014) - Quick Chart Updates including Apple's Doubly-Ominous Print - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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