{"id":24154,"date":"2014-08-30T01:12:56","date_gmt":"2014-08-30T08:12:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=24154"},"modified":"2014-08-30T01:19:32","modified_gmt":"2014-08-30T08:19:32","slug":"t2108-update-140829","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/08\/30\/t2108-update-140829\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (August 29, 2014) – A Surprisingly Strong August, Mixed Prospects for September, and A Critical Test for Twitter"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 63.3%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 12.0%
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold (Bullish)
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #299 over 20% (includes day #280 at 20.01%), Day #13 over 40%, Day #11 over 50% (overperiod), Day #38 under 60%, Day #39 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nAnother day, another all-time high…and a fresh run-up is in sight. In the chart below, notice all the “white space” sitting between the current close at 2003 and the upper-Bollinger Band. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 could be in the early part of a developing uptrending channel<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The seasonal weakness<\/a> never materialized for August in the form of an out-sized drawdown despite the big drop that preceded the month. Instead of a large drawdown, August’s 3.8% gain was its best performance since the year 2000. In 2000, the S&P 500 gained 6.1% in August; the S&P 500 gained 3.4% in August, 2009. Before 2014, August was DOWN three of the last four years. On the flip side, four out of the last five years have delivered UP performances for September. Here is a chart relating August to September performances since 1950.<\/p>\n


\n
\"August<\/a>
August vs September Price Changes for the S&P 500: 1950 to 2013
<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource for prices: Yahoo! Finance<\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Notice that there is no apparent pattern or relationship between the performances of the two months. There are some related raw stats of interest from 1950 to 2013 for August and September:<\/p>\n