{"id":23945,"date":"2014-08-15T21:02:11","date_gmt":"2014-08-16T04:02:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=23945"},"modified":"2014-08-15T23:48:16","modified_gmt":"2014-08-16T06:48:16","slug":"t2108-update-140815","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/08\/15\/t2108-update-140815\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (August 15, 2014) – The S&P 500 Almost Passes the Test"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 41.9%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 13.1%
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold on further buys until\/unless S&P 500 confirms a 50DMA breakout. Otherwise, aggressive traders can attempt a fade at 50DMA resistance. See below for more.
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #288 over 20% (includes day #280 at 20.01%), Day #2 over 40% (overperiod), Day #16 under 50%, Day #27 under 60%, Day #28 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nIt looked like the perfect confirmation of the bullish bounce from T2108 oversold conditions<\/a>. The S&P 500 (SPY) gapped up over its 50DMA, sellers could only barely push the index back to the 50DMA for a minutes, and then the buyers began applying fresh upward pressure. But news headlines from Ukraine<\/a> caused a quick change in the game. And yet, sellers could only take advantage for less than two hours. By the close, the S&P 500 was exactly even with the prior close.<\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A stalemate at the 50DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"News<\/a>
News headlines ended a perfect confirmation of bullish tidings. Yet, sellers could not hold the advantage.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

While the S&P 500 closed flat (slightly in the red), T2108 held onto a small gain. A positive sign for buyers heading into Monday.<\/p>\n

I think Doug Kass summed up the buyer advantage pretty well here… (even though I believe he is holding onto his accumulation of shorts on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ – he seems to be a staunch contrarian).<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n
\n

Regarding the pain trade. I like to always ask who is more scared – longs or shorts? The answer right now is…. still the Shorts, imho.<\/p>\n

— Douglas Kass (@DougKass) August 15, 2014<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n