{"id":23321,"date":"2014-07-14T18:25:18","date_gmt":"2014-07-15T01:25:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=23321"},"modified":"2014-07-14T18:58:10","modified_gmt":"2014-07-15T01:58:10","slug":"t2108-update-140714","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/07\/14\/t2108-update-140714\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (July 14, 2014) – Bear Whiplash"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 56.6%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 12.6 (fades hard into the close)
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold. Stop for longs on the S&P 500 remains at 1962
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #254 over 20%, Day #106 over 40%, Day #33 over 60% (overperiod), Day #4 under 70% (underperiod)<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nAnother shallow pullback, another bout of whiplash for over-eager bears. As I noted last week<\/a>, despite the seemingly bearish tidings accompanying the tumble from overbought conditions, I was very hesitant to switch the trading call to a bearish one. The 1962 line in the sand I drew for the S&P 500 (SPY) worked out amazingly well. It prevented me from joining the bears in another case of whiplash….like this one.<\/p>\n

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As I wrote on RealMoneyPro – "Big" has added to his immense Nasdaq short on recent market strength.$QQQ<\/p>\n

— Douglas Kass (@DougKass) July 10, 2014<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n