{"id":23128,"date":"2014-07-13T10:50:26","date_gmt":"2014-07-13T17:50:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=23128"},"modified":"2014-07-13T10:50:26","modified_gmt":"2014-07-13T17:50:26","slug":"plunge-in-australias-trade-balance-could-mean-weaker-dollar-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/07\/13\/plunge-in-australias-trade-balance-could-mean-weaker-dollar-ahead\/","title":{"rendered":"Plunge In Australia&#8217;s Trade Balance Could Mean Weaker Dollar Ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 2, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2296435-plunge-in-australias-trade-balance-could-mean-weaker-dollar-ahead\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I was just getting accustomed to the idea that <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2287423-a-stubbornly-strong-australian-dollar-introduces-a-risk-factor-into-economic-forecasts\" target=\"_blank\">iron ore prices could plunge without impacting the Australian dollar<\/a> (FXA). <\/p>\n<p>Now comes a surprisingly large plunge in Australia&#8217;s trade balance. On July 2 (Australia time), <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/mf\/5368.0?OpenDocument\" target=\"_blank\">the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that Australia&#8217;s trade balance in May<\/a> dropped to -$1,199 AUD on a seasonally adjusted basis. Australia&#8217;s trade balance has not been this low since the beginning of 2013 when iron ore prices were in the middle of a recovery from a deep sell-off late in 2012. <\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, there seems to be a loose correlation between the trade balance and the Australian dollar. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Click on image for a larger view&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_23129\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-23129\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/140701_AustralianTradeBalanceVsFXA.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/140701_AustralianTradeBalanceVsFXA-300x217.png\" alt=\"Australia&#039;s Trade Balance (Seasonally Adjusted) Versus the Australian\/U.S. Dollar Currency Pair\" width=\"300\" height=\"217\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-23129\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/140701_AustralianTradeBalanceVsFXA-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/07\/140701_AustralianTradeBalanceVsFXA.png 915w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-23129\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Australia&#8217;s Trade Balance (Seasonally Adjusted) Versus the Australian\/U.S. Dollar Currency Pair<br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Sources: Trade balance history from <a href=\"http:\/\/www.dfat.gov.au\/trade\/balance\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\">the Australian Government&#8217;s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade<\/a>; FXA prices from Yahoo Finance.<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I have now put the trade balance on my radar to watch more actively. Since the last two months of negative trade balances follow a 4-month respite, it is too early to conclude that a new trend is underway. However, a negative trade balance makes sense given the Australian dollar is surprisingly high relative to Australia&#8217;s balance of trade and commodity prices (the value of imports goes up versus exports as domestic consumers take advantage of their relative buying power). One counterbalance is a swing lower in the currency&#8230; <\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 2, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2296435-plunge-in-australias-trade-balance-could-mean-weaker-dollar-ahead\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net short the Australian dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) I was just getting accustomed to the idea that iron ore prices could plunge without impacting the Australian dollar (FXA). Now comes a surprisingly large plunge in Australia&#8217;s trade balance. On &#8230; <a title=\"Plunge In Australia&#8217;s Trade Balance Could Mean Weaker Dollar Ahead\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/07\/13\/plunge-in-australias-trade-balance-could-mean-weaker-dollar-ahead\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,59,20],"tags":[308,310,309,1373],"class_list":["post-23128","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-economy","category-forex","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-fxa","tag-trade-balance"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Plunge In Australia&#039;s Trade Balance Could Mean Weaker Dollar Ahead - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/07\/13\/plunge-in-australias-trade-balance-could-mean-weaker-dollar-ahead\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Plunge In Australia&#039;s Trade Balance Could Mean Weaker Dollar Ahead - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 2, 2014. 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