{"id":23047,"date":"2014-06-24T18:28:37","date_gmt":"2014-06-25T01:28:37","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=23047"},"modified":"2014-06-24T18:28:37","modified_gmt":"2014-06-25T01:28:37","slug":"t2108-update-140624","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/06\/24\/t2108-update-140624\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (June 24, 2014) – Stall Speed: Overbought Period Ends"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 66.6% (end a 4-day overbought period)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 12.1
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Even aggressive traders hold. Longs still stop below 1940 on the S&P 500
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #243 over 20%, Day #95 over 40%, Day #22 over 60% (overperiod), Day #1 under 70% (underperiod)<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nT2108 ended a very lacluster 4-day overbought period with a close at 66.6%. The extended overbought rally that I expected never even opened its eyes. Looking back, I feel very fortunate I made some good trades in individual stocks during the overbought period<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The dip in the S&P 500 (SPY) has a very classic bearish pattern: three days of indecisive trading followed by a pullback that easily wipes away the paltry gains of all three days. However, I am sticking with the original bearish trigger of a close below 1940 on the S&P 500. The market is moving in such slow motion that I think patience is warranted. The potential for getting trades chopped up in market churn remains high until the market somehow delivers a more clear directional signal. Moreover, the higher lows on T2108<\/a> suggest that the next pullback will be quite shallow.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 takes an ominous tumble out of overbought conditions<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The volatility index, the VIX, DID open its eyes, apparently waking from a deep slumber. It rose a healthy 10.4% in a move that should perk up the bears. <\/p>\n

Under “normal” conditions, I would rush to buy puts on ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO) and\/or PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) with this combination of signals. Again, I do not see a need to rush. If I find an individual stock with a good technical setup below resistance, I might try to short it for a quick trade. But that is as far as I will go on new trades. Note I DO think the bullish setups I noted in the last T2108 Update<\/a> are already on probation given the way the NASDAQ (QQQ) faded from fresh multi-year highs. This kind of false breakout is typically a very bearish sign. I prefer to have the wind behind my back, especially when dealing with high-multiple and\/or (former) momentum stocks.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The NASDAQ suffers a false breakout with a bearish fade<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Finally, here is an interesting contrast to the gathering bearish clouds. Wix.com (WIX) cleanly broke out above its 50DMA with high buying volume. This is one stock I am going to try to hold. It is even a fresh buy here with a stop below the 50DMA.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Buyers<\/a>
Buyers step up on Wix.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Daily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long WIX<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,599,490,62],"tags":[65,226,1597,303,178,1368,1367],"class_list":["post-23047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-internet","category-overbought","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-vix","tag-volatility","tag-wix","tag-wix-com"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (June 24, 2014) - Stall Speed: Overbought Period Ends - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/06\/24\/t2108-update-140624\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (June 24, 2014) - Stall Speed: Overbought Period Ends - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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