{"id":22825,"date":"2014-06-08T01:43:22","date_gmt":"2014-06-08T08:43:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=22825"},"modified":"2014-06-08T01:46:30","modified_gmt":"2014-06-08T08:46:30","slug":"a-dramatic-change-in-sentiment-for-apple","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/06\/08\/a-dramatic-change-in-sentiment-for-apple\/","title":{"rendered":"A Dramatic Change in Sentiment for Apple"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Just ahead of the start of the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/06\/01\/apple-trading-model-update-end-of-era\/\" target=\"_blank\">I wrote that I was preparing for a change in Apple&#8217;s trading patterns that would impact the Apple Trading Model<\/a> (ATM). My main interest was in the coming 7-to-1 stock split and the potential for retail traders leaving options alone to trade directly in Apple (AAPL) stock. It turns out that large investors\/traders may instead keep the options buzz very much alive in AAPL.<\/p>\n<p>On Wednesday, June 4, 2014, <a href=\"http:\/\/www.cnbc.com\/id\/101731298\" target=\"_blank\">CNBC reported that two huge trades crossed the tape in Apple options<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;In the second-straight day of heavily bullish options buying in Apple, one major investor appears to be betting nearly $60 million that Apple shares will rise above $700 by October.<\/p>\n<p>In one of Wednesday morning&#8217;s largest options trades, 20,000 Apple 675-strike call options were traded for $21.30 per share&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>&#8230;In addition, the same trader appeared to buy 10,000 October 700-strike calls for $14.75 each.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>These trades total a mind-boggling $58M bet on AAPL heading back to all-time highs. When <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2190213-a-turnaround-in-apple-sentiment-should-push-the-stock-back-to-all-time-highs\" target=\"_blank\">I staked my claim on AAPL sentiment indicating the stock would eventually hit all-time highs<\/a>, I did NOT have in mind such massive &#8220;big boy&#8221; bets on AAPL&#8217;s options!<\/p>\n<p>All this options buzz is part of a dramatic drop in the open interest put\/call ratio and similarly a dramatic change in sentiment toward increasing bullishness:<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_22826\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22826\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140607_AAPLOpenInterestPutCallRatio.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140607_AAPLOpenInterestPutCallRatio.png\" alt=\"An apparent sudden bumrush into AAPL call options\" width=\"550\" height=\"499\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22826\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140607_AAPLOpenInterestPutCallRatio.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140607_AAPLOpenInterestPutCallRatio-300x272.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22826\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">An apparent sudden bumrush into AAPL call options<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.schaeffersresearch.com\/streetools\/indicators\/putcall_open_interest_ratio.aspx?TICKER=AAPL\" target=\"_blank\">Schaeffer&#8217;s Investment Research<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>If I am reading this chart correctly, this drop in the put\/call ratio is the first time in at least the past two years where such a notable decline accompanied a ramp in AAPL&#8217;s stock price. In recent history, AAPL has had a tendency to trade inversely to big moves in the put\/call ratio. Such a change in behavior will greatly buttress Apple&#8217;s uptrend. It will invalidate the ATM in a way that could make trading in AAPL a lot easier: just go long, very long&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_22830\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22830\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140606_AAPL.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140606_AAPL.png\" alt=\"The upside resolution to AAPL&#039;s latest Bollinger Band (BB) squeeze continued right through WWDC\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22830\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140606_AAPL.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140606_AAPL-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22830\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The upside resolution to AAPL&#8217;s latest Bollinger Band (BB) squeeze continued right through WWDC<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_22829\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-22829\" style=\"width: 510px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140606_AAPL-extended.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140606_AAPL-extended.png\" alt=\"The march back to all-time high continues - note that stochastics have stayed aloft in over-bought territory for much of the breakout\" width=\"520\" height=\"540\" class=\"size-full wp-image-22829\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140606_AAPL-extended.png 520w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/06\/140606_AAPL-extended-288x300.png 288w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 520px) 100vw, 520px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-22829\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The march back to all-time high continues &#8211; note that stochastics have stayed aloft in over-bought territory for much of the breakout<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/stockcharts.com\/h-sc\/ui?s=AAPL&#038;p=D&#038;yr=3&#038;mn=0&#038;dy=0&#038;id=p41872705903\" target=\"_blank\">StockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Just ahead of the start of the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), I wrote that I was preparing for a change in Apple&#8217;s trading patterns that would impact the Apple Trading Model (ATM). My main interest was in the coming 7-to-1 stock split and the potential for retail traders leaving options alone to trade directly &#8230; <a title=\"A Dramatic Change in Sentiment for Apple\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/06\/08\/a-dramatic-change-in-sentiment-for-apple\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[219,32],"tags":[250,350,155,952],"class_list":["post-22825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-high-tech","category-options","tag-aapl","tag-apple","tag-options-trading","tag-putcall-ratio"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A Dramatic Change in Sentiment for Apple - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/06\/08\/a-dramatic-change-in-sentiment-for-apple\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A Dramatic Change in Sentiment for Apple - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Just ahead of the start of the Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), I wrote that I was preparing for a change in Apple&#8217;s trading patterns that would impact the Apple Trading Model (ATM). 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