{"id":22758,"date":"2014-06-05T17:20:29","date_gmt":"2014-06-06T00:20:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=22758"},"modified":"2014-06-06T07:17:37","modified_gmt":"2014-06-06T14:17:37","slug":"t2108-update-140605","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/06\/05\/t2108-update-140605\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (June 5, 2014) – Back to the Edge of Overbought and A Suspension of Disbelief"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/code>(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 67.6%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 11.7
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Short ONLY on confirmed weakness (see below)
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #230 over 20%, Day #82 over 40%, Day #9 over 60% (over-period), Day #42 under 70% (under-period)<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nWednesday’s bearish divergence<\/a> barely lasted longer than Mario Draghi and the ECB’s attempt to weaken the euro (FXE) through looser monetary policies. The S&P 500 jumped yet again, but this time it was accompanied by a healthy surge in T2108. T2108 closed at its second highest point since last falling from overbought status in early April.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The latest surge in the S&P 500 grows….<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The edge of overbought<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center>
\n19
\nThis chart is definitely and firmly bullish. A new uptrend is well-established now with baby-steps that are well short of “panic buying.” I probably share a sense of disbelief with a lot of people (or at least of the few who are still paying attention to the market as the summer gets underway!). Suspending disbelief for a while, this setup suggests an imminent extended overbought rally. I had earlier thought hitting overbought would be a bearish event, instead, the melt-up has moved so slowly and so smoothly that overbought does not quite equate to over-stretched here. The biggest caution remains the extreme levels of complacency<\/a>. If I decide to chase the trend, I will hang disbelief high in a dark closet, behind the old hats and novelty t-shirts…<\/p>\n

The good news for the bears is that this setup makes it ever more clear what weakness looks like for triggering fresh shorts. Currently, a close below 1920 on the S&P 500 is shortable. Even better if it occurs on a tumble out of overbought conditions. As the rally extends on the S&P 500, the trigger point increases.<\/p>\n

I will have to write a whole separate article on the euro. One important implication of looser monetary policy from the European Central Bank (ECB) that escaped me when I wrote about the play on the euro is the potential for a ramp in carry trades….aka, buy the Australian dollar (FXA). So, while I think I played the gyrations and fake-outs in the euro well, I was not prepared to similarly take advantage of a fresh surge in the Australian dollar. I remain net short the Australian dollar and am rebuilding a short position against the euro. I post related charts below.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The market refuses to cooperate with the ECB’s plan to fight deflation<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n
\"A<\/a>
A close-up look of a stubborn market, likely over-crowded with shorts to fall further for now<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"Even<\/a>
Even the Australian dollar faded against the euro, but the trend seems clear for a continuation, maybe even acceleration, of a carry trade. Next move, RBA!<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Up next, the U.S. non-farm payrolls numbers!<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: net short euro, net short Australian dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[794,20,62],"tags":[478,996,376,1359,226,1597],"class_list":["post-22758","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-europe","category-forex","category-technical-analysis","tag-ecb","tag-euraud","tag-eurusd","tag-sp500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (June 5, 2014) - Back to the Edge of Overbought and A Suspension of Disbelief - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/06\/05\/t2108-update-140605\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (June 5, 2014) - Back to the Edge of Overbought and A Suspension of Disbelief - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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