{"id":22356,"date":"2014-05-01T06:16:21","date_gmt":"2014-05-01T13:16:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=22356"},"modified":"2014-05-01T06:18:01","modified_gmt":"2014-05-01T13:18:01","slug":"t2108-update-140430","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/05\/01\/t2108-update-140430\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (April 30, 2014) – A Stock Market Inching Forward Against Gravity"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 57.4%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 13.4
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Short (fade rallies).
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #206 over 20%, Day #58 over 40% (over-period), Day #10 over 50% (over-period), Day #14 under 60% (under-period), Day #18 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nI last wrote a T2108 Update ten trading days ago<\/a>. At that time, the NASDAQ (QQQ) had just completed a picture-perfect bounce off its 200-day moving average (DMA) that I wondered aloud may have been “too perfect.” After some thrills and spills that support remains well intact. A lot has happened in that short time with earnings rolling out; I will point out just a few top highlights with implications for current trading.<\/p>\n

T2108 closed at 57.4% to end April’s trading. The prior week, T2108 printed a quasi-oversold reading on April 25th that set up the current bounce. T2108 dropped 12.0% in 2-days so the move was minor and would not have warranted a bullish trading call from me. However, with the S&P 500 (SPY) now three-days off a 50DMA bounce, that quasi-oversold day is starting to look more significant. The standard trading rule is to give relief bounces three trading days: May begins with a “fade the rally” trading call as the S&P 500 closed right below the intra-day highs from the previous week. A classic “beginning of the month” rally would form a minor breakout with an even juicier level for fresh shorts. The index is inching against gravity here. It refuses to give a solid confirmation of my now 6-week trading call that the market has printed some kind of lasting top.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 remains stubbornly aloft as it inches forward against gravity<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

As I have stated in earlier posts, I have focused more of my fade-the-rally moves against the NASDAQ as momentum and high-flying stocks have suffered the brunt of the recent selling pressure. The NASDAQ is in poorer shape than the S&P 500, as it also nobly fights against gravity with 200DMA support holding. A fade here is not quite as clear as the S&P 500 given the NASDAQ closed April’s in the middle of more churn and not in the middle of a real relief rally. Note below that the index does sit at a declining 20DMA.<\/p>\n


\n
\"200DMA<\/a>
200DMA support still holds for the NASDAQ<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Our good friend the VIX, the volatility index, is supporting the bullish case as it continues to struggle to stay above the critical 15.35 pivot point. Monday gave the bulls a nice buying signal by fading off that pivot point in combination with the mild quasi-oversold reading. While the S&P 500 is fade-able, more conservative traders could also wait to see whether they can wait for the VIX to retest recent lows before making a move.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The VIX churns away as it rests just above recent lows and continues to struggle to stay above the 15.35 pivot point<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I hope to have time in the next few days to do a comprehensive set of chart reviews. For now, I am highlighting three charts: Netflix (NFLX), Apple (AAPL), and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG). In coming days, I also hope to write about the pre\/post earnings reports on each stock.<\/p>\n

NFLX was a huge disappointment. I nailed the pre-earnings bullish trading call<\/a> but failed to profit as I made the fateful decision to hold my position after the nice 7.0% post-earnings pop. Call it greed, call it a failure to think faster on my feet – either way I consider it a major fail! On Monday, NFLX punched through for a new low on the year, a very dramatic turn-around fade of the post-earnings move. The stock now sits right at the former 2014 low. It is very possible sellers have finally exhausted themselves. Until I examine more closely what happened to the stock these past several days, I am not making a definitive trading call here. Notice in the chart below how the previous 2014 intra-day low magically corresponds to the post-earnings low from the last major NFLX post-earnigs fade (in October); NFLX rose back from the ashes nicely after that one!<\/p>\n


\n
\"Another<\/a>
Another electric post-earnings move for NFLX<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I am of course really sorry I missed the April pre-earnings trade on AAPL. Missing earnings was particularly noteworthy since I pointed to April earnings as a likely major turning point for AAPL’s stock<\/a>. I am even MORE sorry I was unable to make a play for a typical Monday rally for AAPL! I think a trade there would have been one of the biggest wins for the Apple Trading Model<\/a> (ATM) to-date!<\/p>\n

I think the chart speaks for itself. Note that AAPL may have topped out for now with the ominous fade from $600 occurring well-above the upper-Bollinger Band. AAPL spent an impressive four trading days over-stretched. A quick review of past AAPL charts should quickly remind traders that these moves well above the upper-BB typically end in tears. All that remains is follow-through selling to confirm (the ATM should ring selling bells for Thursday and Friday trading – sorry I ran out of time to refresh it for today). It is very possible I will finally sell my few shares here. I am in a bit of a race against time on this one as I want to study the situation more deeply before making a move.<\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A major victory for AAPL in April – but a top may be in the works…<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Finally, ISRG is one of the biggest disappointments in April for me. I have not made a trade in a while, but I was hopeful that the stock and the company had finally turned the bearish tide after it started April with a very bullish response to a new product announcement. Since then, earnings-related news has pounded the stock all the way back toward 52-week lows. With a post-earnings response that featured a gap down below the 200DMA, the stock is suddenly in a very precarious position. This is a classic case where I want to stay bullish, but the stock is screaming at me to reconsider….<\/p>\n


\n
\"Intuitive<\/a>
Intuitive Surgical has become a manic stock with several changes in fortune. The latest drama could deliver a major breakdown to fresh 52-week lows<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO puts, long QQQ puts, long NFLX call spread, long AAPL shares<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,220,300,219,599,511,62],"tags":[250,350,401,145,404,405,65,226,1597,303],"class_list":["post-22356","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-earnings","category-health-care","category-high-tech","category-internet","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-apple","tag-intuitive-surgical-inc","tag-isrg","tag-netflix","tag-nflx","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (April 30, 2014) - A Stock Market Inching Forward Against Gravity - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/05\/01\/t2108-update-140430\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (April 30, 2014) - A Stock Market Inching Forward Against Gravity - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are ... 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