{"id":22341,"date":"2014-04-15T20:01:57","date_gmt":"2014-04-16T03:01:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=22341"},"modified":"2014-04-16T09:09:51","modified_gmt":"2014-04-16T16:09:51","slug":"t2108-update-140415","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/04\/15\/t2108-update-140415\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (April 15, 2014) – A Perfect Bounce – Maybe Too Perfect"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 45.8%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 15.6
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Short (fade rallies). See caveats below.
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #196 over 20%, Day #48 over 40% (over-period), Day #4 under 50% (under-period), Day #4 under 60%, Day #8 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nYou could not make this stuff up even if I tried…and I am guessing I will look back on April 15th, a day affectionately known as “tax day” in the U.S., as a pivotal trading day.<\/p>\n

The morning looked awful as sellers quickly reversed the sharp pop that ended Monday’s trading and delivered the predicted oversold bounce<\/a>. As has become standard fare, the NASDAQ (QQQ) and its high-tech, high-flying, highly valued kin were some of the hardest hit by the selling. By the low of the day, the NASDAQ could see the whites of the eyes on the 200-day moving average (DMA). At that point, almost like magic, the buying kicked in. <\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The NASDAQ bounces perfectly off 200DMA support<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The NASDAQ last touched its 200DMA around the start of 2013. That duration is a testimon to the strength of the rally. My main regret is that I could not be present to take a stab at playing such a momentous occasion.<\/p>\n

This bounce looks almost too perfect, but it matches well with a massive busting of stops at the intraday lows for the year (see the black, thick horizontal line). Assuming stops were taken out, a bunch of reluctant sellers may have just paved the way for a bunch of buyers eager to jump into the breach.<\/p>\n

Of course the buying helped the S&P 500 (SPY) as well. The index surged right into its 50DMA resistance before trading closed for the day. Net-net, if it were not for that ominous 50DMA, the S&P 500 would still look barely phased by the current selling. Compare and contrast: the NASDAQ has a noticeable “sag” from its recent 11-year or so high, creating a short-term downtrend. The S&P 500 on the other hand has barely budged from the land of “churn” off its recent all-time highs.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 bounces right back into its 50DMA as it becomes the stubborn index<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

With T2108 coming off the 40% level and starting to form what looks like a series of higher lows<\/a>, it is time to take the foot off the pedal on bearishness. The sell-off has left a lot of overhead room for a fresh wave of buyers who want to snap up “bargains.” Accordingly, I am not adding to the small number of QQQ puts I bought Monday to fade the oversold bounce. (I sold my EEM puts into today’s selling). I will ride my recent nibbles on some momentum names. I will not look to fade again until the NASDAQ hits its now sharply downtrending 20DMA and\/or the S&P 500 challenges all-time highs again.<\/p>\n

Finally, the VIX is showing signs it is topping out again. While it remains above the 15.35 pivot, it looks like it is running out of gas for this cycle. I am clinging tightly to my UVXY puts…<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The VIX may have already topped out for this cycle<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO puts, long QQQ puts, long QID calls, long UVXY puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[511,62],"tags":[413,535,65,362,226,1597,1092,303,178],"class_list":["post-22341","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-support","category-technical-analysis","tag-nasdaq","tag-qqq","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-uvxy","tag-vix","tag-volatility"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (April 15, 2014) - A Perfect Bounce - Maybe Too Perfect - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/04\/15\/t2108-update-140415\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (April 15, 2014) - A Perfect Bounce - Maybe Too Perfect - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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