{"id":22229,"date":"2014-08-10T16:41:53","date_gmt":"2014-08-10T23:41:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=22229"},"modified":"2014-08-10T16:42:36","modified_gmt":"2014-08-10T23:42:36","slug":"forex-positioning-update-short-euro-canadian-dollar-australian-dollar-long-pound","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/08\/10\/forex-positioning-update-short-euro-canadian-dollar-australian-dollar-long-pound\/","title":{"rendered":"Forex Positioning Update: Short Euro, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Long Pound"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 7, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

There was a lot of action last week in the foreign exchange market. This piece is a quick update on how I have adjusted and\/or maintained positioning in select currencies: the euro (FXE), the British pound (FXB), the Canadian dollar (FXC), and the Australian dollar (FXA). <\/p>\n

Euro<\/strong>
\nLast week on April 3rd, the European Central Bank (ECB) rolled out its latest update on monetary policy<\/a>. President Mario Draghi reminded markets that risks in the euro area remain to the downside. There were some other points that caught my interest.<\/p>\n

Investors continue to show interest in euro area assets. This interest no doubt explains at least some of the stubborn strength in the euro.<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

I believe the clincher for the euro came during the Q&A period when Draghi confirmed that the ECB’s Governing Council discussed the possibility of implementing QE. Draghi also re-emphasized the importance of the exchange rate, an emphasis I think has been largely missing until now…even if the exchange rate itself is still not a “policy target”:<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The euro fades after a trigger-finger surge in reaction to the start of Draghi’s Q&A session<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The euro is on the move lower again, but the general uptrend from last year’s lows remains unbroken<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

British Pound<\/strong>
\nI do not think there is much to say about the British pound right now. Economic data are generally supporting the recovery theme for the UK. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The British pound continues to meander in a very slow-moving uptrend<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Canadian dollar<\/strong>
\nThe Canadian dollar has had a strong comeback since getting slammed by the Federal Reserve’s March monetary policy announcement. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The upward momentum in USD\/CAD loos done for now<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Australian dollar<\/strong>
\nThe Australian dollar is firmly in breakout mode against the U.S. dollar (AUD\/USD). However, its run against the Japanese yen (AUD\/JPY) finally seems to be ending. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Energy<\/a>
Energy and resource earnings are projected to keep growing for another year or two<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: the Bureau of Resources and Energy <\/strong>Economics<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Sure this rise is supported by expanded production capacities and the demand to absorb it. However, if I had not known the expectations for a peak in the terms of trade, I would have looked at this chart and assumed the terms of trade remained bullish. {snip}<\/p>\n

So, on balance, I am staying net short the Australian dollar rather than switching to match the bullish technicals that defy the fundamentals. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The Australian dollar is defying expectations against the U.S. dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The Australian dollar finally showed some weakness against the Japanese yen<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource for charts: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 7, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Full disclosure: net short the euro, Australian, and Canadian dollars. Long the British pound.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 7, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) There was a lot of action last week in the foreign exchange market. This piece is a quick update on how I have adjusted and\/or maintained positioning in select currencies: the … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,235,59,794,20,237],"tags":[772,308,310,128,296,376,28,309,127,297,447,384,138,469],"class_list":["post-22229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-canada","category-economy","category-europe","category-forex","category-united-kingdom","tag-audjpy","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-british-pound","tag-canadian-dollar","tag-eurusd","tag-euro","tag-fxa","tag-fxb","tag-fxc","tag-fxe","tag-gbpusd","tag-japanese-yen","tag-usdcad"],"yoast_head":"\nForex Positioning Update: Short Euro, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Long Pound - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/08\/10\/forex-positioning-update-short-euro-canadian-dollar-australian-dollar-long-pound\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forex Positioning Update: Short Euro, Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, Long Pound - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on April 7, 2014. 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