{"id":21998,"date":"2014-03-18T20:31:09","date_gmt":"2014-03-19T03:31:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=21998"},"modified":"2014-03-18T20:31:51","modified_gmt":"2014-03-19T03:31:51","slug":"t2108-update-140318","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/18\/t2108-update-140318\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (March 18, 2014) – Rare Churn In and Out of Overbought Status"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 72.9%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 14.5
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Short (fade rallies)
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #176 over 20%, Day #22 over 60%, Day #1 over 70% (overperiod)<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nSince 1986, I have recorded 184 overbought periods through March 4, 2014. Over this period, I count approximately 11 periods where T2108 hit overbought at least 3 times in the span of 13 trading days. Today, marks the 12th occasion. <\/p>\n

When the S&P 500 (SPY) staged a sharp one-day recovery that just missed holding T2108 in overbought status<\/a>, I (marginally) switched my trading call to short and warned of more churn ahead. At the time, I was NOT imaging T2108 bouncing in and out of overbought status. Yet, that is what has happened as T2108 made a strong move today, returning to overbought status with a close at 72.9%. The S&P 500 made almost as strong a move as it did yesterday with a gain of 0.7%<\/a>. The trading call stays at short until the S&P 500 makes a fresh all-time high. Such a move would beat out the presumed top marked by the “evening star” chart pattern that typically mark that end of upward momentum. Such a move would also put a quick end to my call of a top<\/a>.<\/p>\n

While the churn in and out of overbought territory is frustrating, I know I need to stick to the rules so that I am in position whenever the big move (up or down) comes. In the meantime, I will continue looking at individual charts that are consistent with the current trading call or can act as a hedge for it. To that end, I closed out my call options on Google (GOOG) as the stock has experienced nice follow-through (as expected) from a retest of its 50DMA. GOOG’s uptrend is too strong to be taken out so easily. But I think it is coming sooner than later…<\/p>\n

The potential quick end to my call for a top reminded me to take a look at the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 200DMAs, or T2107. It turns out that T2107 has yet to retest its post-recession downtrend. In essence, there remains room to expand although I have no reason to insist that T2107 MUST retest the downtrend line from here.<\/p>\n


\n
\"T2107<\/a>
T2107 has experienced a sharp rebound from year-long support<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The chart above makes me think that T2107 is quite extended given the sharpness of the upward push. It is the exact reverse of the over-extended move that took it down in June of last year.<\/p>\n

The Federal Reserve is up next (on Wednesday, March 19th). I am bracing for a game-changing move from the market in response after the dust settles from typical pre\/post-Fed gyrations. In preparation, I added a few more shares in ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Fut ETF (UVXY) that I hope to sell at a profit on the next pop in volatility.<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO puts and calls, long UVXY shares; short GOOG<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[599,490,62],"tags":[231,65,225,226,1597,1092],"class_list":["post-21998","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-internet","category-overbought","category-technical-analysis","tag-goog","tag-sp-500","tag-t2107","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-uvxy"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (March 18, 2014) - Rare Churn In and Out of Overbought Status - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/18\/t2108-update-140318\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (March 18, 2014) - Rare Churn In and Out of Overbought Status - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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