{"id":21977,"date":"2014-03-22T08:55:26","date_gmt":"2014-03-22T15:55:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=21977"},"modified":"2014-03-22T08:56:31","modified_gmt":"2014-03-22T15:56:31","slug":"settling-for-rangebound-trading-in-home-builders","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/22\/settling-for-rangebound-trading-in-home-builders\/","title":{"rendered":"Settling for Rangebound Trading in Home Builders"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2091453-settling-for-range-bound-trading-in-homebuilders\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>{snip} Now that <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/15\/t2108-update-140314\/\" target=\"_blank\">I think the stock market has put in a top for the time-being<\/a>, I have to make another one of those major readjustments in my thinking on home builders (subject to validation of course).<\/p>\n<p>I am essentially going back to range-bound thinking. I have no particular downside target although the chart below gives some potential buy points for ITB. I am focused on buy points rather than points for shorting because I think longer-term risk\/reward still favors housing for all of the bullish reasons I have spent the past few years writing about. In particular, if\/when the economic recovery enters a stronger and healthier mode, housing should soar. Moreover, I want to bet on housing as the potential nexus of pent-up demand for household formation and incipient inflationary forces in the economy sometime in the future.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_21978\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21978\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140314_ITB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21978\" alt=\"Home builders have made tremendous progress since the depths of the recession. An extended time of rest and consolidation may be ahead now.\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140314_ITB.png\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140314_ITB.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140314_ITB-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-21978\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Home builders have made tremendous progress since the depths of the recession. An extended time of rest and consolidation may be ahead now.<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><\/center><\/p>\n<p>From a fundamental standpoint for individual home builders, I am looking to book values as a potential guide for picking and choosing buy spots among home builders that manage to maintain relatively healthy margins. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>As I have written earlier, seeing ITB fail to respond to the good news in new home sales and residential construction raised my first yellow flag. The final straw was seeing ITB respond instead in the previous week to a barrage of analyst downgrades. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2091453-settling-for-range-bound-trading-in-homebuilders\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long shares in MDC and TPH; long call options in ITB, MTH, and TOL<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Now that I think the stock market has put in a top for the time-being, I have to make another one of those major readjustments in my thinking on home &#8230; <a title=\"Settling for Rangebound Trading in Home Builders\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/22\/settling-for-rangebound-trading-in-home-builders\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[1593,1205,1206],"class_list":["post-21977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-housing","tag-housing","tag-ishares-dow-jones-us-home-construction-index-fund","tag-itb"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Settling for Rangebound Trading in Home Builders - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/22\/settling-for-rangebound-trading-in-home-builders\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Settling for Rangebound Trading in Home Builders - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 16, 2014. 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