{"id":2193,"date":"2010-07-29T12:42:51","date_gmt":"2010-07-29T16:42:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=2193"},"modified":"2010-07-29T13:18:41","modified_gmt":"2010-07-29T17:18:41","slug":"waiting-on-first-solar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/07\/29\/waiting-on-first-solar\/","title":{"rendered":"Waiting for Post-Earnings Reaction on First Solar"},"content":{"rendered":"

First Solar (FSLR) reports earnings this evening. Unlike the last two rounds<\/a>, I have no strong feelings about the potential upward or downward moves this time around. I went neutral on FSLR after closing out positions on the great post-earnings pop in April<\/a>, and I have not done much else since then with the stock (I did play the bounce from the recent lows<\/a>, but cashed out well ahead of current levels). <\/p>\n

There has been little in the way of market-moving news, and I suspect tonight’s earnings will not contain any surprises. I am interested to know whether the rally in the euro has helped FSLR’s earnings and whether they start baking in a stronger currency into guidance. Other than that, I will continue to keep an eye on the technicals. FSLR has had a very strong rally since the June lows and has had a strong July although it has stalled out ahead of earnings. I do not like the anemic buying volume during the July rally. Shorts have also pulled back ahead of earnings lowering somewhat the potential for a squeeze. So, I am not motivated to risk buying ahead of earnings. (I post charts for stock price and short interest below).<\/p>\n

I would not short FSLR ahead of earnings because the downside potential is not quite large enough to warrant the risk (7% down to likely support at the 200-day moving average). And, again, I am not anticipating potential for a strong, negative surprise from earnings.<\/p>\n

Not even the valuation provides a strong reason to trade: FSLR is not particularly cheap or expensive at trailing and forward P\/Es around 17<\/a>.<\/p>\n


\n
\"July's<\/a>
July's rally stalls ahead of earnings<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n(Chart captured after 90 minutes or so of trading)
\n
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\n
\"Shorts<\/a>
Shorts pull back a little ahead of FSLR earnings<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n(Source: Nasdaq.com, short interest<\/a>)
\n*All charts created using TeleChart:<\/strong> <\/a>
\n<\/center>
\n<\/p>\n

Instead of taking on pre-earnings risk this time around, playing the volatility after earnings seems much more attractive. I am <\/strong> expecting some large moves off or to key technical levels once trading commences.<\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

First Solar (FSLR) reports earnings this evening. Unlike the last two rounds, I have no strong feelings about the potential upward or downward moves this time around. I went neutral on FSLR after closing out positions on the great post-earnings pop in April, and I have not done much else since then with the stock … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,62],"tags":[6,7,1597],"class_list":["post-2193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-technical-analysis","tag-first-solar","tag-fslr","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nWaiting for Post-Earnings Reaction on First Solar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2010\/07\/29\/waiting-on-first-solar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Waiting for Post-Earnings Reaction on First Solar - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"First Solar (FSLR) reports earnings this evening. 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