{"id":21859,"date":"2014-03-08T23:59:43","date_gmt":"2014-03-09T07:59:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=21859"},"modified":"2014-03-09T00:15:25","modified_gmt":"2014-03-09T08:15:25","slug":"t2108-update-140307","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/08\/t2108-update-140307\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (March 7, 2014) – Overbought with Caution"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 74.2% (4th overbought day)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 14.1
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Long
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #169 over 20%, Day #15 over 60%, Day #4 over 70% (overbought\/overperiod)<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar).<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nMy first round at playing an extended overbought rally was a small success. I started a small tranche of ProShares Ultra S&P500 (SSO) call options on the first dip of the overbought period<\/a>. I promptly sold them after Friday’s higher than expected jobs number failed to inspire a gap up or even a strong open. A limit order to buy into any dip on the day failed to execute. Going forward, I will continue the aggressive dip-buying until it fails to work.<\/p>\n


\n
\"So<\/a>
So far, so good for the overbought period<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

While the S&P 500 (SPY) managed to close at a new all-time high (marginally), T2108 took a dip to close the week at 74.2%. This mild bearish divergence is a yellow flag. The VIX is also hanging tight. After Tuesday’s drubbing, the volatility index has closed at almost the same level the last three days.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The VIX stabilizes a bit even as the overbought period completes its fourth day<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

It is hard to know exactly what the VIX stabilization means, if anything. But combined with a tick downward in T2108, it makes sense to stay on the lookout for a sudden drop out of overbought conditions. Without such a drop, the trading call remains bullish.<\/p>\n

Almost in the bull’s corner is AUD\/JPY, the Australian dollar (FXA) versus the Japanese yen (FXY). On Friday, AUD\/JPY surged and essentially tested the upper portion of the presumed trading range. I have argued in several places that a breakdown\/out of the AUD\/JPY trading range would carry significance for the stock market<\/a>. Breakdowns have worked like a charm as well as bounces out of the breakdown. Bulls can see Friday’s retest as the first phase of an eventual breakout. Bears can see Friday’s failed retest as a signal the rally has finally ended. This coming week’s follow-through should be telling. Note that I took this opportunity to finally close out my long AUD\/JPY position. I will slowly rebuild it on dips as a trading range play and hedge on my net short position against the Australian dollar.<\/p>\n


\n
\"AUD\/JPY<\/a>
AUD\/JPY fails a retes of the top of its trading range….but is a breakout looming anyway?<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Now some quick chart reviews:<\/p>\n

The bond rally for 2014 may have finally ended. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT) put in an ominous double-top formation and is breaking down below its 200 and 50DMAs.<\/p>\n


\n
\"TLT<\/a>
TLT hits a ceiling<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Higher rates could be re-generating fears for housing. Since I think an extended rally for home builders will occur alongside a general stock market rally, I loaded up on some call options on iShares US Home Construction (ITB). This is a play on the 20DMA holding as general support.<\/p>\n


\n
\"ITB<\/a>
ITB needs to hold the 20DMA to maintain a robust rally. Otherwise, more rangebound trading could be ahead…<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I conclude this short update with the incredible post-earnings chart of Skullcandy. At the time of writing, I have a pending post with Seeking Alpha discussing the earnings that generated the surge and fade on Friday. At one point, SKUL was over 50% up for the day! I always make the point that stocks gapping well above or below the upper-Bollinger Band (BB) should be faded. In the case of SKUL, a short position would have experienced a wild ride, but in the end would have been profitable almost no matter when the fade was entered: SKUL closed at its low of the day. It never even occurred to me to try a fade because I was just looking for a point to lock in profits on my long position…<\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A dramatic cap to the 2013 turn-around for SKUL<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO puts and calls, long UVXY shares, net short the Australian dollar, net long Japanese yen, long ITB call options, long put and call options on TLT<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456,483,482,20,35,338,62],"tags":[772,310,1331,1205,1206,138,65,756,755,226,1597,280],"class_list":["post-21859","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bonds-2","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-forex","category-housing","category-retail","category-technical-analysis","tag-audjpy","tag-australian-dollar","tag-ishares-20-year-treasury-bond","tag-ishares-dow-jones-us-home-construction-index-fund","tag-itb","tag-japanese-yen","tag-sp-500","tag-skul","tag-skullcandy","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-tlt"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (March 7, 2014) - Overbought with Caution - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/08\/t2108-update-140307\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (March 7, 2014) - Overbought with Caution - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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