{"id":21764,"date":"2014-03-03T20:59:16","date_gmt":"2014-03-04T04:59:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=21764"},"modified":"2014-03-03T20:59:16","modified_gmt":"2014-03-04T04:59:16","slug":"same-euro-inflation-same-euro-unemployment-but-a-reverse-reaction-in-the-euro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/03\/same-euro-inflation-same-euro-unemployment-but-a-reverse-reaction-in-the-euro\/","title":{"rendered":"Same Euro Inflation, Same Euro Unemployment, But A Reverse Reaction in the Euro"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 2, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2061653-same-euro-inflation-same-euro-unemployment-but-a-reverse-reaction-in-the-euro\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1987271-what-i-learned-shorting-the-euro\" target=\"_blank\">I last wrote about the euro<\/a> (FXE) in the wake of January unemployment and inflation numbers that triggered a sharp sell-off. I took the opportunity to lock in profits on my short EUR\/USD position. A good thing. That point turned out to be a bottom with EUR\/USD grinding ever higher ever since.<\/p>\n<p>One month after that point, <a href=\"http:\/\/epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu\/cache\/ITY_PUBLIC\/2-28022014-BP\/EN\/2-28022014-BP-EN.PDF\" target=\"_blank\">eurostat reported the exact same inflation reading<\/a> &#8211; &#8220;Euro area annual inflation is expected to be 0.8% in February 2014, stable compared with January, according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union&#8221; &#8211;  and <a href=\"http:\/\/epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu\/cache\/ITY_PUBLIC\/3-28022014-AP\/EN\/3-28022014-AP-EN.PDF\" target=\"_blank\">the exact same unemployment data<\/a>:<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Yet, the reaction in forex markets was exactly opposite the reaction at the end of January. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_21771\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21771\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140302_EURUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140302_EURUSD.png\" alt=\"The resilient euro is back to levels that formed a presumed double-top last year\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21771\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140302_EURUSD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140302_EURUSD-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-21771\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The resilient euro is back to levels that formed a presumed double-top last year<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I remain bearish on the euro and have used these higher levels to rescale into a fresh short position. One of the interesting developments alongside the euro&#8217;s growing strength is the accelerating strength of the Swiss franc (FXF), a move I am fading as well. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_21770\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21770\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140302_EURCHF.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140302_EURCHF.png\" alt=\"The euro is resilient, but the franc is getting even stronger...\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21770\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140302_EURCHF.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/140302_EURCHF-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-21770\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The euro is resilient, but the franc is getting even stronger&#8230;<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Note how EUR\/CHF is within &#8220;shouting distance&#8221; of the 1.20 floor. I fully expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to get a little louder than usual about its resolve to defend that level. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 2, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2061653-same-euro-inflation-same-euro-unemployment-but-a-reverse-reaction-in-the-euro\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net short the euro and franc<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 2, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) I last wrote about the euro (FXE) in the wake of January unemployment and inflation numbers that triggered a sharp sell-off. I took the opportunity to lock in profits on my &#8230; <a title=\"Same Euro Inflation, Same Euro Unemployment, But A Reverse Reaction in the Euro\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/03\/same-euro-inflation-same-euro-unemployment-but-a-reverse-reaction-in-the-euro\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[385,376,28],"class_list":["post-21764","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","tag-eurchf","tag-eurusd","tag-euro"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Same Euro Inflation, Same Euro Unemployment, But A Reverse Reaction in the Euro - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/03\/same-euro-inflation-same-euro-unemployment-but-a-reverse-reaction-in-the-euro\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Same Euro Inflation, Same Euro Unemployment, But A Reverse Reaction in the Euro - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on March 2, 2014. 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