{"id":21556,"date":"2014-03-03T20:42:29","date_gmt":"2014-03-04T04:42:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=21556"},"modified":"2014-03-03T20:42:29","modified_gmt":"2014-03-04T04:42:29","slug":"increasing-unemployment-decreasing-commodity-prices-portend-jawboning-by-the-reserve-bank-of-australia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/03\/increasing-unemployment-decreasing-commodity-prices-portend-jawboning-by-the-reserve-bank-of-australia\/","title":{"rendered":"Increasing Unemployment, Decreasing Commodity Prices Portend Jawboning By the Reserve Bank of Australia"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 13, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2017161-increasing-unemployment-decreasing-commodity-prices-portend-jawboning-for-the-reserve-bank-of-australia\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>So much for <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1948901-poor-jobs-report-breaks-down-australian-dollar-but-is-this-the-trough\" target=\"_blank\">a trough in unemployment in Australia<\/a>. <a href=\"http:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/ausstats\/abs@.nsf\/latestProducts\/6202.0Media%20Release1Jan%202014\" target=\"_blank\">The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) produced another poor employment report<\/a>. In January, Australia lost another 3,700 jobs, and the number of unemployed people increased by 16,600. Moreover, the employment rate edged higher to 6.0%. <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?g=s3w\" target=\"_blank\">Unemployment in Australia is now marginally above the post-crisis high<\/a> and overall at a near 11-year high.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_21558\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21558\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_AustraliaUnemploymentRate.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_AustraliaUnemploymentRate.png\" alt=\"Australian unemployment rate through December, 2013\" width=\"550\" height=\"330\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21558\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_AustraliaUnemploymentRate.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_AustraliaUnemploymentRate-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-21558\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Australian unemployment rate through December, 2013<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?g=s3y\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The Australian dollar (FXA) fell immediately in response to the poor numbers. AUD\/USD quickly dropped out of bullish territory (above 0.90), putting me right back in the bearish camp on the currency.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_21559\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21559\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"Poor jobs report throws bounce off the bottom into jeopardy\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21559\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_AUDUSD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_AUDUSD-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-21559\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Poor jobs report throws bounce off the bottom into jeopardy<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Commodities are adding to the pressure on the Australian dollar. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_21560\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21560\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_RBAIndexCommodityPrices.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_RBAIndexCommodityPrices.png\" alt=\"Commodity prices continue to decline for Australia\" width=\"550\" height=\"442\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21560\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_RBAIndexCommodityPrices.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_RBAIndexCommodityPrices-300x241.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-21560\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Commodity prices continue to decline for Australia<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/statistics\/frequency\/commodity-prices\/2014\/icp-0114.html\" target=\"_blank\">RBA Index of Commodity Prices<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_21562\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21562\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_IronOrePrices.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_IronOrePrices.png\" alt=\"Iron ore prices weakening in Australia\" width=\"550\" height=\"378\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21562\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_IronOrePrices.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140212_IronOrePrices-300x206.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-21562\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Iron ore prices weakening in Australia<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.macrobusiness.com.au\/2014\/02\/daily-iron-ore-price-update-one-mighty-pile\/\" target=\"_blank\">Macro Business<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Meanwhile, iron inventories are on the rise in China portending further declines ahead in iron ore prices. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>All these woes might indicate a higher potential for the RBA to start cutting rates again. However, <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1958661-q4-2013-inflation-reading-removes-australias-scope-for-lower-rates\" target=\"_blank\">inflation is creeping higher in Australia<\/a>, and <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1990721-all-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-has-left-for-devaluation-is-jawboning\" target=\"_blank\">the RBA parked its rate machine into neutral<\/a> in its last statement on monetary policy. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 13, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/2017161-increasing-unemployment-decreasing-commodity-prices-portend-jawboning-for-the-reserve-bank-of-australia\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: not short Australian dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 13, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) So much for a trough in unemployment in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) produced another poor employment report. In January, Australia lost another 3,700 jobs, and the number of &#8230; <a title=\"Increasing Unemployment, Decreasing Commodity Prices Portend Jawboning By the Reserve Bank of Australia\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/03\/increasing-unemployment-decreasing-commodity-prices-portend-jawboning-by-the-reserve-bank-of-australia\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,199,59,20],"tags":[308,310,309,676,197],"class_list":["post-21556","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-commodities","category-economy","category-forex","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-fxa","tag-iron-ore","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Increasing Unemployment, Decreasing Commodity Prices Portend Jawboning By the Reserve Bank of Australia - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/03\/increasing-unemployment-decreasing-commodity-prices-portend-jawboning-by-the-reserve-bank-of-australia\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Increasing Unemployment, Decreasing Commodity Prices Portend Jawboning By the Reserve Bank of Australia - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 13, 2014. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) So much for a trough in unemployment in Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) produced another poor employment report. In January, Australia lost another 3,700 jobs, and the number of ... 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