{"id":21459,"date":"2014-03-03T20:37:08","date_gmt":"2014-03-04T04:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=21459"},"modified":"2014-03-03T20:37:08","modified_gmt":"2014-03-04T04:37:08","slug":"all-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-has-left-is-jawboning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/03\/all-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-has-left-is-jawboning\/","title":{"rendered":"All the Reserve Bank of Australia Has Left Is Jawboning"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 4, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1990721-all-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-has-left-for-devaluation-is-jawboning\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made it official: the low interest rate cycle has reached a trough. In <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2014\/mr-14-01.html\" target=\"_blank\">its latest Monetary Policy Decision<\/a> on February 4th, the RBA concluded (emphasis mine):<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;In the Board&#8217;s judgement, monetary policy is appropriately configured to foster sustainable growth in demand and inflation outcomes consistent with the target. <strong>On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates<\/strong>.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Combine the promise of no further rate cuts with a balanced economic outlook, and traders immediately looked across the pastures and over the hills to a time when the Australian economy is humming again and the RBA is hiking rates. In response, the Australian dollar (FXA) immediately soared against all major currencies:<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_21463\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21463\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140204_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140204_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar surges off the bottom after the RBA implies a trough in interest rates\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-21463\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140204_AUDUSD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/140204_AUDUSD-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-21463\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar surges off the bottom after the RBA implies a trough in interest rates<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>For now, until\/unless AUD\/USD closes firmly above 0.90, I think it is still good for fading on rallies. Beyond that, I will have no choice to flip back to a bullish trading bias.<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 4, 2014. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1990721-all-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-has-left-for-devaluation-is-jawboning\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: short AUD\/USD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 4, 2014. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) made it official: the low interest rate cycle has reached a trough. In its latest Monetary Policy Decision on February 4th, the RBA concluded (emphasis &#8230; <a title=\"All the Reserve Bank of Australia Has Left Is Jawboning\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/03\/all-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-has-left-is-jawboning\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,20],"tags":[308,310,309,306,203],"class_list":["post-21459","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-forex","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-fxa","tag-rba","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>All the Reserve Bank of Australia Has Left Is Jawboning - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/03\/03\/all-the-reserve-bank-of-australia-has-left-is-jawboning\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"All the Reserve Bank of Australia Has Left Is Jawboning - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on February 4, 2014. 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