{"id":21243,"date":"2014-01-22T19:01:54","date_gmt":"2014-01-23T03:01:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=21243"},"modified":"2014-01-22T19:01:54","modified_gmt":"2014-01-23T03:01:54","slug":"t2108-update-140122","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/01\/22\/t2108-update-140122\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (January 22, 2014) – Finally Overbought (Includes IBM and NFLX Chart Reviews)"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 71.0%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 12.8
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Short (bearish bias).
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #138 over 20%, Day #1 over 70% (overbought)<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar). <\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nT2108 avoided overbought status for 52 straight trading days until peeking over the requisite 70% threshold today.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The higher lows makes it look like T2108 has been pressured upward for many months<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I thought hitting this point would bring resolution to an important juncture<\/a>, but the tease just barely continues. The S&P 500 barely advanced on the day and remains stuck right near the top of the “bear\/bull” zone that I defined earlier.<\/p>\n


\n
\"S&P<\/a>
S&P 500 continues to crawl along<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The S&P 500 (SPY) enters this overbought period after printing a very high performance for the 70% underperiod. I would like to think this means performance from the overbought period has been “pulled forward,” especially with earnings season in full throttle now. Instead, I think the better perspective recognizes that once\/if the S&P 500 follows through in this overbought period, the index could take off for another legendary extended overbought rally. For now, I am maintaining the bearish bias UNTIL the follow-through occurs. After that, I will follow the standard overbought strategy: bullish first, bearish with a return to the 70% underperiod and\/or bearish on appropriate technicals before overbought day #20.<\/p>\n

I end with two earnings-related chart reviews.<\/p>\n

First up, Netflix (NFLX). The stock traded up an incredible 18% or 60 points in after-hours after the company reported earnings. This puts the stock at a fresh all-time high. While Carl Icahn will likely use this fresh gift to once again sell shares into the increased liquidity generated by post-earnings reactions, I do NOT think it is as clear a shorting opportunity as the last post-earnings response. Last time, NFLX soared almost 12% above its upper-Bollinger Band (BB). That move is about as over-extended as they come! This time, NFLX will be trading just above the upper-BB. Do not be surprised to see additional momentum before the stock pulls back for a rest. With Icahn overhang out of the way, it is very possible upward momentum will continue.<\/p>\n

I last charted NFLX two weeks ago when it broke below its 50DMA. The stock barely followed through on the selling; three times in the last five trading days, buyers rushed in and picked NFLX off the bottom. I guess I should have taken those moves as a bullish pre-earnings sign! I will now be alert for applying this template in other pre-earnings scenarios featuring a stock that should be selling off.<\/p>\n


\n
\"A<\/a>
A pre-earnings setup<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Lastly, International Business Machines (IBM). IBM is turning into a good trading stock. Two months ago I wrote “Simple Reasons to Like IBM Despite the Headwinds<\/a>” and have written a few chart reviews since then<\/a>. I had a modicum of success buying dips but over-extended myself buying a call spread ahead of earnings. That over-confidence has cost me a worthless position but a valuable (re)lesson. There was no real dip to buy here. In fact, IBM had just failed at the 200DMA for the second time this month, triggering what should have been a bright red technical flag to short the stock. The post-earnings trading reaction is indicative of a stock that still has dip-buyers. The stock over-extended a bit below the lower-BB and bounced right into natural resistance\/support at the 50DMA. It is all about the follow-through from here. I will not go long again until a strong close above the 50DMA. Otherwise, the recent W-bottom is likely to get retested relatively quickly.<\/p>\n


\n
\"IBM<\/a>
IBM fails the test<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SPHB and SPLV and SSO puts (pairs trade)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[584,483,482,220,219,599,62],"tags":[399,400,404,405,65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-21243","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bollinger-band","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-earnings","category-high-tech","category-internet","category-technical-analysis","tag-ibm","tag-international-business-machines-corporation","tag-netflix","tag-nflx","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (January 22, 2014) - Finally Overbought (Includes IBM and NFLX Chart Reviews) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/01\/22\/t2108-update-140122\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (January 22, 2014) - Finally Overbought (Includes IBM and NFLX Chart Reviews) - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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