{"id":20991,"date":"2014-01-08T03:47:41","date_gmt":"2014-01-08T11:47:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=20991"},"modified":"2014-01-08T03:51:35","modified_gmt":"2014-01-08T11:51:35","slug":"t2108-update-140107","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/01\/08\/t2108-update-140107\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (January 7, 2014) – Overbought Timelag?"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 66.4%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 12.9
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold (bullish bias)
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #128 over 20%, Day #3 over 60% (overperiod), Day #43 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nMaybe T2108 will start the year overbought after all…just a few days late. T2108 closed the day at 66.4%, its highest close in two months. One more strong day on the S&P 500 (SPY) could push my favorite technical indicator into overbought territory (70% and above). The small push in the index ended a small three-day losing streak.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Another<\/a>
Another shallow pullback, and the S&P 500 looks ready to rip again<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

As a result of the new push, the volatility index has pushed downward again. In particular, ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) has turned downward yet again. This time, the previous rally was very short-lived. The persistent downtrend in UVXY has made it one of my favorite ways (short) to play a bullish bias in the general stock market.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Oh<\/a>
Oh that downtrend feeling<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

While we wait for overbought, here is a cornucopia of charts that I hope mainly speak for themselves. Some of them are follow-ups from previous posts. Most represent strong uptrends and nice breakouts. A few demonstrate tops in the making and red flag breakdowns. A few show important tests of resistance in the making or failed. If you have any questions on why I posted any of these charts or what they mean, feel free to ping me through the comments section.<\/p>\n


\n
\"More<\/a>
More follow-through selling forTwitter. This time, a bearish engulfing pattern further confirms a top in the works<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n
\"LinkedIn<\/a>
LinkedIn already trying to repair a major breakdown<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"A<\/a>
A fresh post-IPO all-time high for BenefitFocus<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"VMWare<\/a>
VMWare breaks out<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"Qualsys<\/a>
Qualsys breaks out to new all-time high after finding firm 50DMA support<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"An<\/a>
An amazingly persistent recovery and run-up for Logitech<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"Priceline.com<\/a>
Priceline.com bounces of long-standing 50DMA support<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"IBM<\/a>
IBM meets its next challenge at 200DMA resistance. Stock continues to frustrate bears and delight buyers looking for a reasonably priced tech stock<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"New<\/a>
New all-time highs for Google as post-earnings uptrend remains well-oiled<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"Caterpillar<\/a>
Caterpillar fails the test again<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\".<\/a>
. Current one makes up for lost time.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"Best<\/a>
Best Buy looking toppy…finally<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"Major<\/a>
Major breakdown for Netflix after a surprisingly strong uptrend post-Icahn selling<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SPHB and SPLV and SSO puts (pairs trade); long CAT, SKUL; short BBY, NFLX, LNKD; long puts on LNKD, TWTR, UVXY<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[483,482,512,135,511,62,920],"tags":[721,1290,720,1291,64,63,231,230,399,400,629,579,1294,1295,404,405,956,957,1292,1293,65,756,755,226,1597,1257,1258,1092,1288,1289],"class_list":["post-20991","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-breakdown","category-breakout","category-resistance","category-stock-market-trading","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-uptrend","tag-bby","tag-benefitfocus","tag-best-buy","tag-bnft","tag-cat","tag-caterpillar-inc","tag-goog","tag-google","tag-ibm","tag-international-business-machines-corporation","tag-linkedin-corporation","tag-lnkd","tag-logi","tag-logitech-intl-sa","tag-netflix","tag-nflx","tag-pcln","tag-priceline-com","tag-qlys","tag-qualsys","tag-sp-500","tag-skul","tag-skullcandy","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-twitter","tag-twtr","tag-uvxy","tag-vmw","tag-wmware"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (January 7, 2014) - Overbought Timelag? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2014\/01\/08\/t2108-update-140107\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (January 7, 2014) - Overbought Timelag? - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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