{"id":20761,"date":"2013-12-18T20:37:47","date_gmt":"2013-12-19T04:37:47","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=20761"},"modified":"2013-12-19T07:13:03","modified_gmt":"2013-12-19T15:13:03","slug":"t2108-update-131218","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/12\/18\/t2108-update-131218\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (December 18, 2013) – Upside Resolution Redux As Fed Rolls Out A Sample-Sized Tapering"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 45.9% (20.4% increase)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 13.8 (14.9% drop)
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Aggressive traders still experiencing whiplash around the 1800 pivot. Overall bias switches to bullish and will stay there unless\/until market reverses all its post-Fed gains.
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #116 over 20% (overperiod), Day #12 under 50%, Day #29 under 60%, Day #34 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThe S&P 500 (SPY) is above 1800 yet again in dramatic fashion. The index closed the day at a marginal new all-time high with a 1.7% gain. All the gains came after the Federal Reserve announced a tease of a taper by shaving a little “edge” off its bond buying program<\/a> and promising to keep rates low for what now almost seems like an eternity. It reads like a sample-sized tapering: just enough to signal to the markets a change in direction, but not enough to have any real impact on anything. The market was a bit indecisive in the wake of the announcement as the index first dipped to its 50DMA before shooting upward like a rocket.<\/p>\n


\n
\"This<\/a>
This 15-minute chart shows the dramatic post-Fed move in the markets<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 bounces sharply in picture-perfect fashion off its 50DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

This looks like upside resolution<\/a> all over again. The bias flips right back to the upside especially with T2108 putting on a strong showing from what were another set of quasi-oversold conditions. Note that the T2108 Trading Model (TTM) accurately anticipated another day of selling<\/a> after the quasi-oversold conditions were met. However, looking back, we find ourselves with yet another resounding example of the power of quasi-oversold conditions in an uptrend: an eventual recovery, often sharp, from the previous selling. At this point, I am not even sure what it will take for this market to drop to TRUE oversold conditions (T2108 at or below 20%)! T2108 was last oversold in June – 116 trading days ago (the 20% overperiod). <\/p>\n

While I was VERY surprised by the strength of the market post-Fed, I was not surprised by the collapse in volatility in the wake of the Fed. As I mentioned in the last T2108 Update<\/a>, I bought puts on ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY) in anticipation of an implosion in volatility leading into or in the immediate wake of the Fed announcement. Given the strong move in the S&P 500, I decided to hold the puts instead of selling them immediately as I originally planned. Assuming the market follows through in the coming week or two, volatility will go even lower from here and UVXY will suffer mightily. The VIX plunged 14.9%, and UVXY fell by a similar amount.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The VIX PLUNGES<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"UVXY<\/a>
UVXY also plunges – to fresh all-time lows<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The impact in foreign exchange was equally dramatic on an intraday basis. The fireworks were enhanced by a very strong employment report from the United Kingdom overnight. I will have to dedicate an entire post to the intriguing forex implications of this post-taper era. I will just say for now that I have an intense focus on the euro (FXE) right now as I consider it incredibly over-valued. It has been beating up on almost all major currencies in recent weeks and even months. In particular, its out-performance against the U.S. dollar and the British pound is long overdue for a major rollback. Note that the euro is still above its level after the ECB CUT rates in early November…<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The euro actually managed to rally against the U.S. dollar before sinking like a stone post-Fed<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"While<\/a>
While the euro reacted as I thought it should after taper starts, it is still well above where it was when ECB cut rates. EUR\/USD may have printed a firm double top however….<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO puts and calls, long UVXY puts, long shares in SPHB, SPLV, and VXX; net short euro, net long pound, net long U.S. dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[376,28,447,1023,1094,65,226,1597,1092,303],"class_list":["post-20761","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-eurusd","tag-euro","tag-fxe","tag-implied-volatility","tag-proshares-ultra-vix-short-term-futures-etf","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-uvxy","tag-vix"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (December 18, 2013) - Upside Resolution Redux As Fed Rolls Out A Sample-Sized Tapering - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/12\/18\/t2108-update-131218\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (December 18, 2013) - Upside Resolution Redux As Fed Rolls Out A Sample-Sized Tapering - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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