{"id":20535,"date":"2013-11-27T01:04:17","date_gmt":"2013-11-27T09:04:17","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=20535"},"modified":"2013-11-27T01:04:17","modified_gmt":"2013-11-27T09:04:17","slug":"black-friday-last-stand-for-bears-for-2013","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/27\/black-friday-last-stand-for-bears-for-2013\/","title":{"rendered":"Black Friday 2013: A Likely Last Stand for Bears for the Year"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 27, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1865251-black-friday-2013-a-likely-last-stand-for-bears-for-the-year\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Black Friday in the U.S. is the day after Thanksgiving when shoppers descend upon stores scrambling to find bargains for Christmas gifts. For some reason, the stock market also opens for business albeit for a shortened day of stock shopping. This day should not be significant for the stock market, but surprisingly it is. Last year, I wrote &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1026571-quantifying-the-significance-of-black-friday-trading\" target=\"_blank\">Quantifying The Significance Of Black Friday Trading<\/a>&#8221; including a few fascinating statistics on trading around Black Friday. There were three main lessons&#8230;{snip}<\/p>\n<p>{snip} <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_20539\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20539\" style=\"width: 403px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131126_SP500ChangeBlackFriday.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131126_SP500ChangeBlackFriday.png\" alt=\"S&amp;P 500 Price Change on Black Friday (1950 - 2012)\" width=\"413\" height=\"260\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20539\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131126_SP500ChangeBlackFriday.png 413w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131126_SP500ChangeBlackFriday-300x188.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 413px) 100vw, 413px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-20539\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">S&#038;P 500 Price Change on Black Friday<br \/>(1950 &#8211; 2012)<br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_15393\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15393\" style=\"width: 482px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121123_SP500BlackFridayCalendarDaysCloseBelow.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121123_SP500BlackFridayCalendarDaysCloseBelow.jpg\" alt=\"Number of Calendar Days It Takes for the S&amp;P 500 to Close Below Black Friday Close (1950 to 2011)\" title=\"Number of Calendar Days It Takes for the S&amp;P 500 to Close Below Black Friday Close (1950 to 2011)\" width=\"492\" height=\"321\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15393\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121123_SP500BlackFridayCalendarDaysCloseBelow.jpg 492w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121123_SP500BlackFridayCalendarDaysCloseBelow-300x195.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 492px) 100vw, 492px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15393\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Number of Calendar Days It Takes for the S&P 500 to Close Below Black Friday Close (1950 to 2011)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_15395\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-15395\" style=\"width: 513px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121123_SP500BlackFridayCalendarDaysEraseGains.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121123_SP500BlackFridayCalendarDaysEraseGains.jpg\" alt=\"Number of Calendar Days It Takes for the S&amp;P 500 to Erase Black Friday Gains  (1950 to 2011)\" title=\"Number of Calendar Days It Takes for the S&amp;P 500 to Erase Black Friday Gains  (1950 to 2011)\" width=\"523\" height=\"320\" class=\"size-full wp-image-15395\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121123_SP500BlackFridayCalendarDaysEraseGains.jpg 523w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/11\/121123_SP500BlackFridayCalendarDaysEraseGains-300x183.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 523px) 100vw, 523px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-15395\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Number of Calendar Days It Takes for the S&P 500 to Erase Black Friday Gains  (1950 to 2011)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Note that I have not studied what happens in years when the S&#038;P 500 manages to close below the Black Friday close within the subsequent week. If it happens this year, I will dig deeper.<\/p>\n<p>In the meantime, here are data on the maximum drawdowns by month of the year. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_20541\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20541\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131126_SP500MonthlyDrawdown.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131126_SP500MonthlyDrawdown.png\" alt=\"Maximum Drawdown on the S&amp;P 500 By Month of the Year (January, 1950 to October, 2013)\" width=\"550\" height=\"400\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20541\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131126_SP500MonthlyDrawdown.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131126_SP500MonthlyDrawdown-300x218.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-20541\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Maximum Drawdown on the S&#038;P 500 By Month of the Year<br \/>(January, 1950 to October, 2013)<br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for price data: Yahoo Finance<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/07\/t2108-update-131107\/\" target=\"_blank\">The last bearish signal I identified was on November 7th<\/a> when the S&#038;P 500 swooned briefly. {snip} I am now focused on Black Friday shopping&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 27, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1865251-black-friday-2013-a-likely-last-stand-for-bears-for-the-year\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long SSO puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 27, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Black Friday in the U.S. is the day after Thanksgiving when shoppers descend upon stores scrambling to find bargains for Christmas gifts. For some reason, the stock market also opens for &#8230; <a title=\"Black Friday 2013: A Likely Last Stand for Bears for the Year\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/27\/black-friday-last-stand-for-bears-for-2013\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[997,62,1],"tags":[1074,492,65,362,446,805],"class_list":["post-20535","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp-500-analysis","category-technical-analysis","category-uncategorized","tag-black-friday","tag-proshares-ultra-sp-500","tag-sp-500","tag-spy","tag-sso","tag-techncial-analysis"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Black Friday 2013: A Likely Last Stand for Bears for the Year - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/27\/black-friday-last-stand-for-bears-for-2013\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Black Friday 2013: A Likely Last Stand for Bears for the Year - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 27, 2013. 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