{"id":20476,"date":"2013-11-20T23:02:35","date_gmt":"2013-11-21T07:02:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=20476"},"modified":"2013-11-21T04:35:59","modified_gmt":"2013-11-21T12:35:59","slug":"t2108-update-131120","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/20\/t2108-update-131120\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (November 20, 2013) – A Divergence Into Quasi-Oversold Conditions"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 48.9%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 13.4
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Aggressive traders should stay short. Stop out on S&P 500 follow-through above 1800. T2108 Trading Model (TTM) generates 68% chance of an up day for November 21st based on quasi-oversold conditions<\/a>.
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #102 over 20% (overperiod), Day #1 under 50% (underperiod), Day #10 under 60%, Day #15 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nThe S&P 500 (SPY) ended last Friday with its sixth straight week delivering upside to investors.<\/p>\n


\n
\"The<\/a>
The S&P 500 has had a strong two years full of streaks<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: StockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

The chart above is a handy reminder of what the bears are up against when trying to fade this market. While the recent six-week up-streak was noteworthy, it was not surprising given this strong uptrend. What IS surprising is that once again, T2108 is plunging while the S&P 500 is not also selling off hard. In three days, T2108 has fallen 16% while the S&P 500 is off only -0.9%. At least the index IS moving downward. When T2108 plunged for over a week recently, the S&P 500 barely moved at all until a one-day sell-off on November 7th<\/a>. Sellers quickly exhausted themselves and buyers had no trouble reversing the losses. It only took a day.<\/p>\n

I failed to examine November 7th’s drop as a quasi-oversold condition<\/a>. This time, I am ready. I even updated the historical data through November 13, 2013 (long overdue!). With T2108 dropping 14% over the past two days, the T2108 Trading Model (TTM) generates a 68% chance that the S&P 500 will close up tomorrow (November 21, 2013). Interestingly, the data refresh finally brings a condition on the S&P 500’s position relative to its 200DMA. If the S&P 500 were trading BELOW the 200DMA, with all else being equal, the TTM would have generated an 87% chance of a DOWN day. This differentiation according to technicals is what I originally expected when I first constructed the TTM. It is reassuring to see this condition finally appear. There are no branches in the classification tree for position relative to the 20 or 50DMAs.<\/p>\n

I continue to watch closely the on-going selling in the high-flyers of the stock market. See my last T2108 Update<\/a> for examples. Also, Bespoke Investments quantified the sell-off by slicing up the Russell 1000 into deciles and showing the differentiated performance in the past two weeks versus year-to-date (see “2013’s Big Winners Having A Rough Week<\/a>“). <\/p>\n

The sudden weakness in highly speculative stocks will likely continue, maybe even accelerate, given tapering fears have reignited in the stock market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury soared today from 2.71% to 2.79% in the wake of the minutes from the last Fed meeting<\/a>. One of my favorite plays in this volatile rate environment remains a straddle or strangle on iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM). EEM printed another short setup yesterday and today cracked below its 50DMA again. I think this ETF is topping out…if you look closely, you might even recognize a head and shoulders top in the making.<\/p>\n


\n
\"EEM<\/a>
EEM cracks important support again in what looks like confirmed topping action<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

I end by pointing out that Apple (AAPL) is on the edge of confirming my warning of a downward resolution to a Bollinger Band squeeze. AAPL closed exactly at $515 today which is the support from the January post-earnings gap down. Crack through this, and AAPL will easily retest its 50DMA support which just so happens to rest right around $500…<\/p>\n


\n
\"Apple<\/a>
Apple continues to sag toward a 50DMA retest<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Piecing all these signals together, I am looking through Thursday’s likely upside to an important and critical juncture with Black Friday<\/a>. I continue to think that season will serve as a “last stand” for bears to get some real selling going. Until then, I am being very opportunistic in shorting stocks and will use a rally on Thursday to look for new short candidates. I have NOT yet expanded my small tranche of SSO puts. I still prefer to wait for overbought conditions before doing so.<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO puts; long AAPL shares; long AAPL put spread<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[219,491,1154],"tags":[250,534,1195,1196,65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-20476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-high-tech","category-oversold","category-t2108-model","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-eem","tag-ishares-msci-emerging-markets-index","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (November 20, 2013) - A Divergence Into Quasi-Oversold Conditions - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/20\/t2108-update-131120\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (November 20, 2013) - A Divergence Into Quasi-Oversold Conditions - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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