{"id":20397,"date":"2013-11-09T20:54:28","date_gmt":"2013-11-10T04:54:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=20397"},"modified":"2013-11-09T20:54:28","modified_gmt":"2013-11-10T04:54:28","slug":"t2108-update-131108","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (November 8, 2013) – An Even MORE Surprising Divergence"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 54.2
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 12.9
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Stay short. Should have already faded Friday’s surge.
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #94 over 20% (overperiod), Day #2 under 60% (underperiod), Day #7 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nEEM<\/a> (iShares MSCI Emerging Markets)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nJust like that, the S&P 500 (SPY) recovered almost all its losses from Thursday’s plunge. When I wrote in the last T2108 Update<\/a> that new shorts should be initiated as a fade of a bounce, I certainly did not have a complete reversal in mind! However, I took my own advice and initiated a fresh round (meaning second attempt) of T2108 trades. I bought a first and small tranche of ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO) puts. I also added shares in ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (SDS). I have not purchased SDS in a long time. I did so in this round in anticipation of an extended pullback.<\/p>\n

T2108’s move generated the big surprise of the day. While the S&P 500 reversed most of its losses and the VIX essentially reversed all its gains, T2108 essentially went nowhere. This divergence is even more surprising than the one I identified earlier<\/a> with T2108 slowly dripping downward while the S&P 500 churned in place. In fact, I am so surprised I wrote to the provider of T2108 calculations, FreeStockCharts.com, just to make sure there is no error. Assuming the data are correct, this divergence appears extremely bearish to me until it is resolved otherwise. <\/p>\n

Given the rapid reversal, I am going to give this round of T2108 trades more latitude. Earlier, I said a new all-time is a natural stop for new shorts. Now, it looks like such a stop could cause some serious whiplash. I think a close and follow-through above 1800 on the S&P 500 seems as good as any loose stopping point right now. This stop is more important for the SDS shares I bought.<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SSO puts, short SCTY put, short FSLR shares<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-20397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (November 8, 2013) - An Even MORE Surprising Divergence - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (November 8, 2013) - An Even MORE Surprising Divergence - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are ... Read more\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2013-11-10T04:54:28+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@drduru\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Dr. Duru\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"2 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Dr. Duru\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"headline\":\"T2108 Update (November 8, 2013) – An Even MORE Surprising Divergence\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-11-10T04:54:28+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":507,\"commentCount\":3,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.drduru.com\\\/money\\\/charts\\\/T2108-daily_s.png\",\"keywords\":[\"S&P 500\",\"T2108\",\"Technical Analysis\"],\"articleSection\":[\"Stock Market Trading\",\"Technical Analysis\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/\",\"name\":\"T2108 Update (November 8, 2013) - An Even MORE Surprising Divergence - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.drduru.com\\\/money\\\/charts\\\/T2108-daily_s.png\",\"datePublished\":\"2013-11-10T04:54:28+00:00\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.drduru.com\\\/money\\\/charts\\\/T2108-daily_s.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"http:\\\/\\\/www.drduru.com\\\/money\\\/charts\\\/T2108-daily_s.png\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/2013\\\/11\\\/09\\\/t2108-update-131108\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"T2108 Update (November 8, 2013) – An Even MORE Surprising Divergence\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/\",\"name\":\"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\",\"description\":\"Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\"},\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":[\"Person\",\"Organization\"],\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0\",\"name\":\"Dr. Duru\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg\",\"width\":900,\"height\":100,\"caption\":\"Dr. Duru\"},\"logo\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/09\\\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg\"},\"sameAs\":[\"http:\\\/\\\/www.drduru.com\\\/onetwentytwo\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/drduru_market_breadth\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/x.com\\\/drduru\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"T2108 Update (November 8, 2013) - An Even MORE Surprising Divergence - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"T2108 Update (November 8, 2013) - An Even MORE Surprising Divergence - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","og_description":"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are ... Read more","og_url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/","og_site_name":"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","article_published_time":"2013-11-10T04:54:28+00:00","og_image":[{"url":"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png","type":"","width":"","height":""}],"author":"Dr. Duru","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@drduru","twitter_site":"@drduru","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Dr. Duru","Est. reading time":"2 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/"},"author":{"name":"Dr. Duru","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0"},"headline":"T2108 Update (November 8, 2013) – An Even MORE Surprising Divergence","datePublished":"2013-11-10T04:54:28+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/"},"wordCount":507,"commentCount":3,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png","keywords":["S&P 500","T2108","Technical Analysis"],"articleSection":["Stock Market Trading","Technical Analysis"],"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/","name":"T2108 Update (November 8, 2013) - An Even MORE Surprising Divergence - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#website"},"primaryImageOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/#primaryimage"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png","datePublished":"2013-11-10T04:54:28+00:00","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/"]}]},{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/#primaryimage","url":"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png","contentUrl":"http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/money\/charts\/T2108-daily_s.png"},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/09\/t2108-update-131108\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"T2108 Update (November 8, 2013) – An Even MORE Surprising Divergence"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#website","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/","name":"ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","description":"Exploring the poetry in financial markets for students of money and economy since the year 2000.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0"},"potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":["Person","Organization"],"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/#\/schema\/person\/d9569fde6c701b021a8d958f775be9a0","name":"Dr. Duru","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","url":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg","width":900,"height":100,"caption":"Dr. Duru"},"logo":{"@id":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/09\/cropped-masthead-header.jpg"},"sameAs":["http:\/\/www.drduru.com\/onetwentytwo","https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/drduru_market_breadth\/","https:\/\/x.com\/drduru"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=20397"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20397\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20403,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20397\/revisions\/20403"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=20397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=20397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=20397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}