{"id":20373,"date":"2013-11-06T22:21:42","date_gmt":"2013-11-07T06:21:42","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=20373"},"modified":"2013-11-06T22:25:50","modified_gmt":"2013-11-07T06:25:50","slug":"elon-musk-day-tesla-solar-city","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/06\/elon-musk-day-tesla-solar-city\/","title":{"rendered":"An Elon Musk Day: Downtrend Forming for Tesla; A Post-Earnings Opportunity for Solar City"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Elon Musk took a small hit on his two high-flying darlings Tesla (TSLA) and Solar City (SCTY) in the wake of recent earnings. Both represent some intriguing technical trading opportunities that I review in brief here.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Tesla (TSLA)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I used twitter to talk about Tesla pre and post-earnings. On Tuesday, November 5, I noted a huge volume surge in TSLA weekly $150 puts (hat tip to a friend of mine).<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\">\n<p>No wild after hours trading for <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/search?q=%24TSLA&amp;src=ctag\">$TSLA<\/a> post-earnings. Just straight down. Massive vol on weekly $150 puts so MMs likely to make a stand there<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Data-driven $$$ (@DrDuru) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DrDuru\/statuses\/397860608961302528\">November 5, 2013<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I continued following the drama today (Nov 6th) with these $150 puts and tweeted frequently. First I was surprised that TSLA opened without breaking to a fresh 1-month low. Next, I was surprised that the stock managed to break the $150 level to the downside. Finally, I was surprised that the stock was able to come back from that breakdown to finish above $150. In the process those weekly $150 puts ranged from about $0.93 at the lows to $6.40 at the highs! In the end, the puts closed up 63%. The MMs (Market Makers) have a lot of work to do to snatch profits out of those puts!<\/p>\n<p>While watching the puts, I almost missed two things that indicate a sustained downtrend could be forming on Tesla. On the daily chart below, you can clearly see how TSLA is generally following the lower-Bollinger Band lower. The pop ahead of earnings was a huge fake-out. I added a line at the previous 1-month low to show how TSLA opened with some hope to avoid a breakdown, only to get rejected at the top of the downtrend channel and then trade to a near 2 1\/2 month low. <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_20376\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20376\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA.png\" alt=\"TSLA struggles to hold on post-earnings\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20376\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-20376\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">TSLA struggles to hold on post-earnings<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>In the process of this bouncing around, the old 1-month low eventually became resistance. The intra-day 15-minute chart provides a close-up to some important technical action. The intial bout of bottom-fishing on the stock lasted only 15 minutes. After TSLA set a new low for the past month, the selling soon climaxed at $146.36. From there TSLA made two valiant attempts to break the resistance at the old 1-month low but failed. I am now watching this level like a hawk. A break to the upside may have me trading for a quick bounce. Follow-through selling will confirm the unfolding downtrend.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_20375\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20375\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA-intraday.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA-intraday.png\" alt=\"TSLA struggles with intraday resistance after succumbing to sellers\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20375\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA-intraday.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA-intraday-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-20375\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">TSLA struggles with intraday resistance after succumbing to sellers<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Finally here is a 1-year chart for most of this year as a reminder that TSLA&#8217;s current troubles are still a drop in the bucket relative to this year&#8217;s gains. Also note how TSLA traded below its 50DMA for the first time since March. Since then, not a single downtrend unfolded like the current one. Given the previous uptrend, the only &#8220;natural&#8221; support rests at the 200-day moving average (DMA)&#8230;which happens to float right above $100, a source of brief congestion back in June.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_20377\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20377\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA-zoomout.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA-zoomout.png\" alt=\"An unfolding downtrend that barely registers on the &quot;richter scale&quot; of TSLA&#039;s monster gains in 2013\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20377\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA-zoomout.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/11\/131106_TSLA-zoomout-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-20377\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">An unfolding downtrend that barely registers on the &#8220;richter scale&#8221; of TSLA&#8217;s monster gains in 2013<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p><strong>Solar City (SCTY)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>I wrote about the pre-earnings opportunity for SCTY in &#8220;<a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/05\/solar-city-pre-earnings-technical-review\/\">Solar City Pre-Earnings Technical Review \u2013 November, 2013 Edition<\/a>.&#8221; In that piece, I presented a case for expecting SCTY to trade up post-earnings if it moved much at all. I tweeted just ahead of the close of trading that the market would not give me my price selling puts, so I stood on the sidelines of the trade. SCTY traded down as much as 10% in after hours trading, so of course I felt a little relieved that the trade never executed. I was reminded why I was targeting a sufficiently high price on selling the puts: I needed compensation for some downside risk in case my pre-earnings trade ended up on the wrong side of the fence. At its current point, my trade would register a small loss.<\/p>\n<p>While SCTY has no natural support until around $44 where the 50DMA resides, I am preparing to sell puts as a  continuation of my original pre-earnings trade idea. If SCTY can actually trade down double digits in the wake of all four of its earnings reports, perhaps it can also pick up the pieces for a fourth time and eventually launch into a fresh rally. I will be reaching for some time premium to give this one time to work its way <\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Elon Musk took a small hit on his two high-flying darlings Tesla (TSLA) and Solar City (SCTY) in the wake of recent earnings. Both represent some intriguing technical trading opportunities that I review in brief here. Tesla (TSLA) I used twitter to talk about Tesla pre and post-earnings. On Tuesday, November 5, I noted a &#8230; <a title=\"An Elon Musk Day: Downtrend Forming for Tesla; A Post-Earnings Opportunity for Solar City\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/06\/elon-musk-day-tesla-solar-city\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[368,220,3],"tags":[1170,1262,16,1263,887],"class_list":["post-20373","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-automotive","category-earnings","category-solar-energy","tag-scty","tag-soalr-city","tag-solar-stocks","tag-tesla","tag-tsla"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>An Elon Musk Day: Downtrend Forming for Tesla; A Post-Earnings Opportunity for Solar City - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/06\/elon-musk-day-tesla-solar-city\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"An Elon Musk Day: Downtrend Forming for Tesla; A Post-Earnings Opportunity for Solar City - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Elon Musk took a small hit on his two high-flying darlings Tesla (TSLA) and Solar City (SCTY) in the wake of recent earnings. 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