{"id":20271,"date":"2013-11-03T08:08:24","date_gmt":"2013-11-03T16:08:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=20271"},"modified":"2013-11-03T08:08:24","modified_gmt":"2013-11-03T16:08:24","slug":"fed-leaves-no-dollar-catalyst","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/03\/fed-leaves-no-dollar-catalyst\/","title":{"rendered":"The Federal Reserve Leaves No Catalyst for A Dollar Breakdown&#8230;or Breakout"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 1, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1796622-the-federal-reserve-leaves-no-catalyst-for-a-dollar-breakdown-or-breakout\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The U.S. dollar (UUP) sold off steadily going into Wednesday&#8217;s (October 30, 2013) statement from the Federal Reserve on monetary policy. It has been a slow yet relatively steady grind lower until the index finally cracked levels last seen in early February which also happen to coincide with the dollar&#8217;s level at the time QE3 was announced a little over a year ago. So, at first blush, it seems strange that the dollar is rallying in the wake of a Fed statement that contained no tapering and no specific tapering timetable. In fact, a broad examination of the statement remains consistent with a high likelihood that tapering is off the table until 2014. <\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_20274\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20274\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_DXY0.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_DXY0.png\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar index bounces off its QE3 price yet again\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20274\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_DXY0.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_DXY0-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-20274\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar index bounces off its QE3 price yet again<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The Fed statement directly blamed the fiscal mess in Washington for its decision to back off from tapering (emphasis mine):<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Despite the acknowledged slowing in the housing recovery, the Fed stuck to a story of &#8220;underlying strength.&#8221; <\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>These broad swings in the U.S. dollar almost make the market look overall indecisive, if not confused: there is still no strong catalyst for taking the dollar outside of its current comfort zone. As such, I am sticking with my expectation that in due time, the dollar will trade back up to the top of its trading range at least to its QE2 price.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_20273\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20273\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_DXY0-monthly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_DXY0-monthly.png\" alt=\"The QE2\/QE3 trading range is bound within a larger post-panic trading range\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20273\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_DXY0-monthly.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_DXY0-monthly-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-20273\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The QE2\/QE3 trading range is bound within a larger post-panic trading range<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>My one caveat is the British pound (FXB). {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_20275\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20275\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_GBPUSD-weekly.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_GBPUSD-weekly.png\" alt=\"GBP\/USD has remained trapped under a downtrend since its post-panic peak\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20275\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_GBPUSD-weekly.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_GBPUSD-weekly-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-20275\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">GBP\/USD has remained trapped under a downtrend since its post-panic peak<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_20276\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20276\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_GBPUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_GBPUSD.png\" alt=\"A close-up of GBP\/USD relative to post-panic downtrend\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-20276\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_GBPUSD.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/10\/131031_GBPUSD-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-20276\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A close-up of GBP\/USD relative to post-panic downtrend<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 1, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1796622-the-federal-reserve-leaves-no-catalyst-for-a-dollar-breakdown-or-breakout\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net long U.S. dollar, long GBP\/USD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 1, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The U.S. dollar (UUP) sold off steadily going into Wednesday&#8217;s (October 30, 2013) statement from the Federal Reserve on monetary policy. It has been a slow yet relatively steady grind lower &#8230; <a title=\"The Federal Reserve Leaves No Catalyst for A Dollar Breakdown&#8230;or Breakout\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/03\/fed-leaves-no-dollar-catalyst\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[921,58,20,511,62,21,920],"tags":[128,299,127,384,115,895,1591],"class_list":["post-20271","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-downtrend","category-federal-reserve","category-forex","category-support","category-technical-analysis","category-u-s-dollar","category-uptrend","tag-british-pound","tag-dxy0","tag-fxb","tag-gbpusd","tag-monetary-policy","tag-rydex-currency-shares-british-pound-sterling-trust-etf","tag-u-s-dollar"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Federal Reserve Leaves No Catalyst for A Dollar Breakdown...or Breakout - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/11\/03\/fed-leaves-no-dollar-catalyst\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Federal Reserve Leaves No Catalyst for A Dollar Breakdown...or Breakout - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on November 1, 2013. 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