{"id":20005,"date":"2013-09-30T00:33:25","date_gmt":"2013-09-30T07:33:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=20005"},"modified":"2013-09-30T00:35:38","modified_gmt":"2013-09-30T07:35:38","slug":"t2108-update-130927","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/30\/t2108-update-130927\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (September 27, 2013) – S&P 500 and T2108 Divergence Continue as the VIX Pops"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 61.0%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 15.5 (up 10%)
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #64 over 20% (overperiod), Day #89 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nIn the last T2108 Update<\/a>, I guessed that the S&P 500 would meander in the absence of a fresh catalyst. As we stand on the edge of the precipice of a U.S. budget showdown, I am realizing that the unfolding drama should<\/strong> be the catalyst. Yet, it is still hard to believe this drama will be a major catalyst given the relative calm in markets going in. T2108 is meandering and remains trapped between 60 and 70%. The S&P 500 has slowly parachuted ever closer to a retest of its 50DMA. On Friday, the VIX showed some excitement by popping 10%. It stopped – yes, you guessed it – right at the magical pivot point that has marked the VIX action for many, many months now.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Ever<\/a>
Ever closer to a 50DMA retest<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"The<\/a>
The VIX finally wakes up but stops cold at the same old pivot line<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

In the last update, I also pointed out that emerging markets have not benefited from lower bond yields in the U.S. Both the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) and the iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond ETF (EMB) continue “gentle” declines. EEM has broken below its 200DMA. Of course, if U.S. bonds are now rallying as some kind of counter-intuitive safety trade, then it makes perfect sense that EEM and EMB should continue to decline. I continue to like either one as hedges on any calamities in the next few weeks.<\/p>\n

Until the market gets its next catalyst, I do not think T2108 will have much else to say. The bullish divergence with the S&P 500 is interesting, but past experience has demonstrated that any interpretation of such divergences, bearish or bullish, are subject to a high amount of error. I can only say that it seems that a solid core of the market is resisting the temptation to join the S&P 500 lower.<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long EEM strangle (out-of-money calls and puts), long VXX<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,62],"tags":[65,226,1597,303,931],"class_list":["post-20005","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-vix","tag-volatility-index"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (September 27, 2013) - S&P 500 and T2108 Divergence Continue as the VIX Pops - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/30\/t2108-update-130927\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (September 27, 2013) - S&P 500 and T2108 Divergence Continue as the VIX Pops - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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