{"id":19986,"date":"2013-10-03T22:48:11","date_gmt":"2013-10-04T05:48:11","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=19986"},"modified":"2013-10-03T22:48:11","modified_gmt":"2013-10-04T05:48:11","slug":"prepared-to-buy-homebuilders-even-as-housing-pause-reawakens-some-short-interest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/10\/03\/prepared-to-buy-homebuilders-even-as-housing-pause-reawakens-some-short-interest\/","title":{"rendered":"Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1719132-prepared-to-buy-homebuilders-even-as-housing-pause-reawakens-some-short-interest\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19987\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19987\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_InterestRates.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_InterestRates.png\" alt=\"Mortgage rates and treasury yields come down off recent highs\" width=\"550\" height=\"330\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19987\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_InterestRates.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_InterestRates-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19987\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Mortgage rates and treasury yields come down off recent highs<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\nSource: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?g=mS2\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider any of the dips that are likely to come in the next several weeks to represent particularly good buying opportunities.<\/p>\n<p>Interestingly, higher rates and weakening technicals for homebuilder stocks did not spike the interest of homebuilder bears. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Click image for a larger view&#8230;<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19999\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19999\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130928_HomebuilderSharesShortYTDDecrease.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130928_HomebuilderSharesShortYTDDecrease-300x217.png\" alt=\"Shares Short in Select Homebuilding Stocks With Year-to-Date Decreased Short Interest (Sept 15, 2011 to Sept 15, 2013)\" width=\"300\" height=\"217\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-19999\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130928_HomebuilderSharesShortYTDDecrease-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130928_HomebuilderSharesShortYTDDecrease.png 912w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19999\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Shares Short in Select Homebuilding Stocks With Year-to-Date Decreased Short Interest (Sept 15, 2011 to Sept 15, 2013)<br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_20000\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-20000\" style=\"width: 290px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130928_HomebuilderSharesShortYTDIncrease.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130928_HomebuilderSharesShortYTDIncrease-300x217.png\" alt=\"Shares Short in Select Homebuilding Stocks With Year-to-Date Increased Short Interest (Sept 15, 2011 to Sept 15, 2013)\" width=\"300\" height=\"217\" class=\"size-medium wp-image-20000\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130928_HomebuilderSharesShortYTDIncrease-300x217.png 300w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130928_HomebuilderSharesShortYTDIncrease.png 912w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-20000\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Shares Short in Select Homebuilding Stocks With Year-to-Date Increased Short Interest (Sept 15, 2011 to Sept 15, 2013)<br \/><\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for data: accumulated from NASDAQ.com short interest<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>I am keeping my eye out on the horizon because the housing recovery is just getting started. Homebuilding is still in a deep recession relative to past decades. The longer economic conditions suppress this building activity, the more pent-up demand grows in the system. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19990\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19990\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_TotalHousingStarts.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_TotalHousingStarts.png\" alt=\"Total New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)\" width=\"550\" height=\"330\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19990\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_TotalHousingStarts.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_TotalHousingStarts-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19990\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Total New Privately Owned Housing Units Started (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?g=mSl\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_19989\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19989\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_HousingStarts-SingleFamily.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_HousingStarts-SingleFamily.png\" alt=\"Total One Family Units Privately Owned Housing Starts (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly)\" width=\"550\" height=\"330\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19989\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_HousingStarts-SingleFamily.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130927_HousingStarts-SingleFamily-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19989\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Total One Family Units Privately Owned Housing Starts (Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?g=mSk\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip} On <a href=\"http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=f5m06B5IYcY\" target=\"_blank\">Nightly Business Report, September 26, 2013<\/a> (start 11:30 in the video), Mark Hanson of M Hanson Advisors claimed that new home sales are currently only 7% of all home sales whereas typically they contribute about 20-25%. <\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<object id=\"cnbcplayer\" height=\"380\" width=\"400\" classid=\"clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000\" codebase=\"http:\/\/download.macromedia.com\/pub\/shockwave\/cabs\/flash\/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0\" ><param name=\"type\" value=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\"\/><param name=\"allowfullscreen\" value=\"true\"\/><param name=\"allowscriptaccess\" value=\"always\"\/><param name=\"quality\" value=\"best\"\/><param name=\"scale\" value=\"noscale\" \/><param name=\"wmode\" value=\"transparent\"\/><param name=\"bgcolor\" value=\"#000000\"\/><param name=\"salign\" value=\"lt\"\/><param name=\"flashVars\" value=\"startTime=000\"\/><param name=\"flashVars\" value=\"endTime=000\"\/><param name=\"movie\" value=\"http:\/\/plus.cnbc.com\/rssvideosearch\/action\/player\/id\/3000200385\/code\/cnbcplayershare\" \/><embed name=\"cnbcplayer\" PLUGINSPAGE=\"http:\/\/www.macromedia.com\/go\/getflashplayer\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" allowscriptaccess=\"always\" bgcolor=\"#000000\" height=\"380\" width=\"400\" quality=\"best\" wmode=\"transparent\" scale=\"noscale\" salign=\"lt\" src=\"http:\/\/plus.cnbc.com\/rssvideosearch\/action\/player\/id\/3000200385\/code\/cnbcplayershare\" type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" \/><\/object><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Some of the bearish arguments I have read latch on to every data point as a negative:<br \/>\n{snip}<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, I think a better framework for thinking about the housing recovery is to recognize that the industry is in the early stages of pulling out of a depression. The deflationist psychology inherited from the crashing of the bubble will take considerable time to heal. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1719132-prepared-to-buy-homebuilders-even-as-housing-pause-reawakens-some-short-interest\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long TPH<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider &#8230; <a title=\"Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/10\/03\/prepared-to-buy-homebuilders-even-as-housing-pause-reawakens-some-short-interest\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[456,35],"tags":[1052,543,1003,1051,39,1593,1044,1043,146,147,78,1050,1047,1046,891,892,1017,1045,1049,1048,1240,1238,37,36,1158,1156,1241,1239],"class_list":["post-19986","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bonds-2","category-housing","tag-beazer-homes-usa-inc","tag-bzh","tag-dhi","tag-dr-horton-inc","tag-homebuilder","tag-housing","tag-hov","tag-hovnanian-enterprises-inc","tag-kb-home","tag-kbh","tag-len","tag-lennar-corp","tag-mdc","tag-mdc-holdings-inc","tag-meritage-homes-corporation","tag-mth","tag-phm","tag-pultegroup-inc","tag-ryl","tag-ryland-group-inc","tag-taylor-morrison-home-corporation","tag-tmhc","tag-tol","tag-toll-brothers-inc","tag-tph","tag-tri-pointe-homes","tag-william-lyon-homes","tag-wlh"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/10\/03\/prepared-to-buy-homebuilders-even-as-housing-pause-reawakens-some-short-interest\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. 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ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/10\/03\/prepared-to-buy-homebuilders-even-as-housing-pause-reawakens-some-short-interest\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Prepared to Buy Homebuilders Even As Housing Pause Reawakens Some Short Interest - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets","og_description":"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 29, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Homebuilder stocks joined most rate-sensitive plays by falling sharply from their lofty levels once the direction and momentum of rates became clear. {snip} I consider ... 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