{"id":19716,"date":"2013-09-17T23:06:56","date_gmt":"2013-09-18T06:06:56","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=19716"},"modified":"2013-09-17T23:06:56","modified_gmt":"2013-09-18T06:06:56","slug":"mixed-bets-on-emerging-markets-add-to-divergent-responses-to-higher-rates","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/17\/mixed-bets-on-emerging-markets-add-to-divergent-responses-to-higher-rates\/","title":{"rendered":"Mixed Bets On Emerging Markets Add to Divergent Responses to Higher Rates"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1695412-mixed-bets-on-emerging-markets-add-to-divergent-responses-to-higher-rates\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>As markets head into a much anticipated Federal Reserve decision that should feature some resolution on the tapering question, I found it interesting to rewind the tape back to the recent G20 summit held in Saint Petersburg, Russia. <a href=\"http:\/\/video.cnbc.com\/gallery\/?video=3000197531&#038;startTime=21&#038;endTime=289\" target=\"_blank\">After the summit, CNBC interviewed IMF Managing Director (MD) Christine Lagarde<\/a> to get her perspective on the proceedings. Lagarde noted the high level uncertainty about the impact of unconventional monetary policies and the resulting angst felt particularly in emerging countries over the Federal Reserve&#8217;s potential tapering. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<object id=\"cnbcplayer\" height=\"380\" width=\"400\" classid=\"clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000\" codebase=\"http:\/\/download.macromedia.com\/pub\/shockwave\/cabs\/flash\/swflash.cab#version=9,0,0,0\" ><param name=\"type\" value=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\"\/><param name=\"allowfullscreen\" value=\"true\"\/><param name=\"allowscriptaccess\" value=\"always\"\/><param name=\"quality\" value=\"best\"\/><param name=\"scale\" value=\"noscale\" \/><param name=\"wmode\" value=\"transparent\"\/><param name=\"bgcolor\" value=\"#000000\"\/><param name=\"salign\" value=\"lt\"\/><param name=\"flashVars\" value=\"startTime=000\"\/><param name=\"flashVars\" value=\"endTime=000\"\/><param name=\"movie\" value=\"http:\/\/plus.cnbc.com\/rssvideosearch\/action\/player\/id\/3000197531\/code\/cnbcplayershare\/&#038;startTime=21\/&#038;endTime=289\" \/><embed name=\"cnbcplayer\" PLUGINSPAGE=\"http:\/\/www.macromedia.com\/go\/getflashplayer\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" allowscriptaccess=\"always\" bgcolor=\"#000000\" height=\"380\" width=\"400\" quality=\"best\" wmode=\"transparent\" scale=\"noscale\" salign=\"lt\" src=\"http:\/\/plus.cnbc.com\/rssvideosearch\/action\/player\/id\/3000197531\/code\/cnbcplayershare\/&#038;startTime=21\/&#038;endTime=289\" type=\"application\/x-shockwave-flash\" \/><\/object><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I find the angst in emerging countries interesting given the mixed signals in the markets. Sure <a href=\"http:\/\/static.cdn-seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2013\/9\/15\/saupload_130913_InterestRates.png\" target=\"_blank\">interest rates have increased<\/a>, but U.S. and international stock markets have shaken off those effects for months now.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19784\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19784\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_InterestRates.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_InterestRates.png\" alt=\"U.S. rates continue to rise\" width=\"550\" height=\"330\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19784\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_InterestRates.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_InterestRates-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19784\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">U.S. rates continue to rise<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_19803\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19803\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130916_UKBondYields.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130916_UKBondYields.png\" alt=\"UK bond yields are up in the past month in the middle of the curve\" width=\"550\" height=\"255\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19803\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130916_UKBondYields.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130916_UKBondYields-300x139.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19803\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">UK bond yields are up in the past month in the middle of the curve<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/markets.ft.com\/research\/Markets\/Bonds\" target=\"_blank\">Financial Times<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19802\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19802\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_EEM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_EEM.png\" alt=\"EEM failed to make a lower low in the last swoon so a bottoming could be underway\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19802\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_EEM.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_EEM-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19802\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">EEM failed to make a lower low in the last swoon so a bottoming could be underway<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Other market indicators are also showing traders and investors are getting more comfortable with EEM. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Moving on to the African continent, the bond markets in many African countries have been quite active and healthy. It seems investors have no hesitation in chasing higher yields there. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Somewhat tempering this picture, perhaps even paradoxically, are <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.ft.com\/beyond-brics\/2013\/09\/06\/em-fund-flows-the-exodus-continues\/#axzz2eRFZfuIK\" target=\"_blank\">the large outflows of funds from emerging market equity and bond funds<\/a>. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19805\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19805\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_EMB.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_EMB.png\" alt=\"iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond (EMB) is not enjoying the same rebound that EEM has\" width=\"550\" height=\"375\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19805\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_EMB.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/09\/130913_EMB-300x204.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19805\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond (EMB) is not enjoying the same rebound that EEM has<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Putting it altogether, the somewhat mixed signals in the trading in emerging markets underlines the potential for on-going, sporadic bursts of high volatility as the market&#8217;s assessments shift and swoon with the tides of sentiment. Even after the Federal Reserve provides clarity on tapering (assuming it does), the impact of its decision will be hotly debated and every little signal, like the latest major economic report from China, will get over-extrapolated into a conclusion. Under these conditions, I think it makes sense to avoid one-way thinking and to stay flexible. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1695412-mixed-bets-on-emerging-markets-add-to-divergent-responses-to-higher-rates\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long EEM puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) As markets head into a much anticipated Federal Reserve decision that should feature some resolution on the tapering question, I found it interesting to rewind the tape back to the recent &#8230; <a title=\"Mixed Bets On Emerging Markets Add to Divergent Responses to Higher Rates\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/17\/mixed-bets-on-emerging-markets-add-to-divergent-responses-to-higher-rates\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1226,456,58,266],"tags":[1230,1195,1228,1229,1225,115,1227],"class_list":["post-19716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-africa","category-bonds-2","category-federal-reserve","category-government","tag-christine-lagarde","tag-eem","tag-emb","tag-ishares-jpmorgan-usd-emerging-markets-bond","tag-ishares-msci-emerging-markets","tag-monetary-policy","tag-mozambique"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Mixed Bets On Emerging Markets Add to Divergent Responses to Higher Rates - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/17\/mixed-bets-on-emerging-markets-add-to-divergent-responses-to-higher-rates\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mixed Bets On Emerging Markets Add to Divergent Responses to Higher Rates - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on September 16, 2013. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) As markets head into a much anticipated Federal Reserve decision that should feature some resolution on the tapering question, I found it interesting to rewind the tape back to the recent ... 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