{"id":19616,"date":"2013-09-11T22:04:23","date_gmt":"2013-09-12T05:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=19616"},"modified":"2013-09-11T22:04:23","modified_gmt":"2013-09-12T05:04:23","slug":"the-australian-dollar-strengthens-in-the-absence-of-a-new-catalyst-for-rate-cuts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/11\/the-australian-dollar-strengthens-in-the-absence-of-a-new-catalyst-for-rate-cuts\/","title":{"rendered":"The Australian Dollar Strengthens In the Absence Of A New Catalyst for Rate Cuts"},"content":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 19, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Time to swivel heads around on the Australian dollar (FXA) yet again.<\/p>\n

In “Australian Dollar’s Relief Rally Ends With The Latest RBA Meeting Minutes<\/a>,” I concluded that the Reserve Bank of Australian (RBA) signaled it is willing to continue cutting rates until the Australian dollar drops to more acceptable levels. Now, I am not so sure as this week’s statement on monetary policy<\/a> excluded the critical cover that the RBA has used to signal the potential for lower rates. <\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n

September’s statement said absolutely nothing about scope and did not reference the outlook for inflation. The RBA only stated that inflation “has been consistent with the medium-term target.” Implicitly, the RBA seems to be suggesting that the cash rate target has gone as low as it can given current inflation (and the outlook). I almost missed these subtle changes. {snip}<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"Various<\/a>
Various Australian Economic Indicators
(January, 2007 to August, 2013)<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource: Reserve Bank of Australia Statistical Tables<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

So, the cash rate target (thick red line) is now roughly equivalent to the inflation rate (green line). There appears to be no further “scope” for lower inflation. {snip}<\/p>\n


\n
\"AUD\/USD<\/a>
AUD\/USD bounces without making a lower low<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n
\"A<\/a>
A breakout above the 50DMA could signal a bottom in the making for AUD\/JPY<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
\"The<\/a>
The uptrend in GBP\/AUD remains intact for now<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\"An<\/a>
An important retest of recent lows for EUR\/AUD<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\nSource for charts: FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Trading the Australian dollar now gets very tricky. {snip}<\/p>\n

{snip}<\/p>\n


\n<\/embed><\/object>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 19, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Full disclosure: net short the Australian dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 19, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Time to swivel heads around on the Australian dollar (FXA) yet again. In “Australian Dollar’s Relief Rally Ends With The Latest RBA Meeting Minutes,” I concluded that the Reserve Bank of … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,59,20],"tags":[308,310,309,247,1598,115,203,197],"class_list":["post-19616","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-economy","category-forex","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-fxa","tag-gdp","tag-inflation","tag-monetary-policy","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia","tag-unemployment"],"yoast_head":"\nThe Australian Dollar Strengthens In the Absence Of A New Catalyst for Rate Cuts - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/11\/the-australian-dollar-strengthens-in-the-absence-of-a-new-catalyst-for-rate-cuts\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Australian Dollar Strengthens In the Absence Of A New Catalyst for Rate Cuts - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 19, 2013. 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