{"id":19252,"date":"2013-08-11T19:50:48","date_gmt":"2013-08-12T02:50:48","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=19252"},"modified":"2013-08-11T19:50:48","modified_gmt":"2013-08-12T02:50:48","slug":"relief-rally-underway-for-australian-dollar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/08\/11\/relief-rally-underway-for-australian-dollar\/","title":{"rendered":"Relief Rally Underway for the Australian Dollar &#8211; Just Barely"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 8, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1617282-relief-rally-underway-for-the-australian-dollar-just-barely\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The move has occurred in fits and starts, but <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1604332-prepare-for-a-potential-relief-rally-in-the-australian-dollar\" target=\"_blank\">the relief rally I anticipated for the Australian dollar<\/a> (FXA) appears to be underway.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/media-releases\/2013\/mr-13-15.html\" target=\"_blank\">The latest decision on monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia<\/a> (RBA) contained no surprises. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The RBA did not deliver any fresh catalyst for expecting even lower rates. So it made sense that after this announcement, the currency essentially had nowhere to go but up in a contrarian, counter-trend move. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19256\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19256\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDUSD-intraday.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDUSD-intraday.png\" alt=\"The makings of a relief rally\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19256\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDUSD-intraday.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDUSD-intraday-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19256\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The makings of a relief rally<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_19257\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19257\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"Overall downtrend well intact. Will rally end at 50-day moving average resistance?\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19257\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDUSD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDUSD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19257\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Overall downtrend well intact. Will rally end at 50-day moving average resistance?<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip} While the Australian dollar is not a member of the U.S. dollar index (UUP), AUD\/USD will likely fall again if\/once the dollar index bounces off the bottom of its presumed trading range (as I expect it to do).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19260\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19260\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_DXY0.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_DXY0.png\" alt=\"The U.S. dollar is now swinging wildly within its recent trading range\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19260\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_DXY0.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_DXY0-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19260\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The U.S. dollar is now swinging wildly within its recent trading range<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19258\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19258\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDJPY.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDJPY.png\" alt=\"The Japanese yen pushed back quickly on the Aussie although a bottoming is now faintly coming into view\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19258\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDJPY.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_AUDJPY-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19258\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Japanese yen pushed back quickly on the Aussie although a bottoming is now faintly coming into view<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19259\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19259\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_GBPAUD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_GBPAUD.png\" alt=\"A wild two days for the British pound\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19259\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_GBPAUD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_GBPAUD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19259\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A wild two days for the British pound<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_19263\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-19263\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_EURAUD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_EURAUD.png\" alt=\"EUR\/AUD coming off lofty heights\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-19263\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_EURAUD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/08\/130807_EURAUD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-19263\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">EUR\/AUD coming off lofty heights<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStocCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>It is of course hard to tell how long the relief rally will last for the Australian dollar &#8211; a halt at the 50-day moving average shown in the second chart above seems just as good as a stopping point as any. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens finally has the market&#8217;s full attention, so we should expect significant downside risk to the currency whenever he gets up to speak&#8230;{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 8, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1617282-relief-rally-underway-for-the-australian-dollar-just-barely\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: net long Australian dollar, net long U.S. dollar (mainly against the euro and yen)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 8, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The move has occurred in fits and starts, but the relief rally I anticipated for the Australian dollar (FXA) appears to be underway. The latest decision on monetary policy from the &#8230; <a title=\"Relief Rally Underway for the Australian Dollar &#8211; Just Barely\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/08\/11\/relief-rally-underway-for-australian-dollar\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,20],"tags":[772,308,310,996,309,592,448],"class_list":["post-19252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-forex","tag-audjpy","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-euraud","tag-fxa","tag-gbpaud","tag-rydex-currencyshares-australian-dollar-trust-etf"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Relief Rally Underway for the Australian Dollar - Just Barely - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/08\/11\/relief-rally-underway-for-australian-dollar\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Relief Rally Underway for the Australian Dollar - Just Barely - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on August 8, 2013. 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