{"id":18984,"date":"2013-07-27T11:11:27","date_gmt":"2013-07-27T18:11:27","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=18984"},"modified":"2013-07-27T11:11:27","modified_gmt":"2013-07-27T18:11:27","slug":"runway-rocky-for-pound-until-august-inflation-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/27\/runway-rocky-for-pound-until-august-inflation-report\/","title":{"rendered":"The Runway Should Be Rocky for the Pound Until the August Inflation Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 26, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1575372-the-runway-should-be-rocky-for-the-pound-until-the-august-inflation-report\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-23446056\" target=\"_blank\">Second quarter GDP growth in the UK met &#8220;expectations&#8221; with a 0.6% gain over the first quarter<\/a> and a 1.4% gain year-over-year. This is the first estimate and uses 44% of actual data. <\/p>\n<p>The initial reaction was to sell the British pound (FXB). Presumably, expectations were high going into this report with a series of good economic data points in recent weeks, so meeting expectations triggered the obligatory contrary sell-off. However, the pound recovered all its losses in the U.S. trading session as the U.S. dollar fell across most major currency pairs.<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18992\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18992\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130725_GBPUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130725_GBPUSD.png\" alt=\"The pound continues its bounce from the lows\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18992\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130725_GBPUSD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130725_GBPUSD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18992\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The pound continues its bounce from the lows<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}Normally, I would conclude that the runway is now clear for further gains, but the next Bank of England Inflation Report is coming in two weeks. Fresh memories remain of new governor <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1538112-a-surging-u-s-dollar-and-carney-overwhelm-bullish-underpinnings-for-the-british-pound\" target=\"_blank\">Mark Carney&#8217;s dovish talk after the last monetary policy decision<\/a> where he called the rise in market rates at that time unwarranted by the economic data. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The most intriguing pair is the euro (FXE) versus the pound (EUR\/GBP).<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18993\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18993\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130725_EURGBP.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130725_EURGBP.png\" alt=\"The year-long rally in EUR\/GBP has returned the pair to the middle of its post-recession range\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18993\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130725_EURGBP.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130725_EURGBP-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18993\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The year-long rally in EUR\/GBP has returned the pair to the middle of its post-recession range<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source for charts: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Manufacturing is one of two sectors (the other being construction) languishing the most in the UK economy. The eurozone is a major drag on UK manufacturing. Manufacturing is still 10% below its pre-recession level of output whereas services has essentially fully recovered. Manufacturing has declined consistently since late 2010, so its 0.4% growth in the second quarter is a small but encouraging sign of improvement.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 26, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1575372-the-runway-should-be-rocky-for-the-pound-until-the-august-inflation-report\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long GBP\/USD<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 26, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) Second quarter GDP growth in the UK met &#8220;expectations&#8221; with a 0.6% gain over the first quarter and a 1.4% gain year-over-year. This is the first estimate and uses 44% of &#8230; <a title=\"The Runway Should Be Rocky for the Pound Until the August Inflation Report\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/27\/runway-rocky-for-pound-until-august-inflation-report\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,794,20,387],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-europe","category-forex","category-germany"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The Runway Should Be Rocky for the Pound Until the August Inflation Report - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/27\/runway-rocky-for-pound-until-august-inflation-report\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The Runway Should Be Rocky for the Pound Until the August Inflation Report - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 26, 2013. 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