{"id":18858,"date":"2013-07-17T22:15:16","date_gmt":"2013-07-18T05:15:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=18858"},"modified":"2013-07-17T22:15:16","modified_gmt":"2013-07-18T05:15:16","slug":"t2108-update-130717","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/17\/t2108-update-130717\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (July 17, 2013) – Small Stall At All-Time Intraday High; Chart Review Madness"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 60.0%
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 13.8
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold – Aggressive traders who got long the breakout can STILL stay long; otherwise, buy dips with tight stops
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #15 over 20% (overperiod), Day #1 over 60%, Day #42 under 70%<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nI estimated last week that T2108 would reach overbought by tomorrow (Thursday). With T2108 at 60.0%, I think it is unlikely. The S&P 500 (SPY) has stalled out a bit right at the all-time intraday high, and it would take a strong rally to push T2108 through the overbought threshold in one more day. It is earnings season so anything can happen of course, but I am adjusting my forecast to Monday or Tuesday of next week.<\/p>\n

In the meantime, all the bullish signals remain. T2108, and thus the S&P 500, still has room to run from here.<\/p>\n

I will quickly finish this update with six stocks of interest which are providing (or should provide) the excitement that S&P 500 has not in the past four days.<\/p>\n

Caterpillar (CAT)<\/strong>
\nCAT plunged back through its 200DMA in a topping kind of pattern. Volume surged to about twice the daily average. The cuplrit was apparently Dick Chanos. Chanos provided his bearish case on CNBC<\/a> (video is 2:50 long).<\/p>\n


\n<\/object>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Chanos has long been bearish on China, so I am surprised that his words were able to generate such a sharp and sudden surge in selling on CAT. These fireworks demonstrate the power of Chanos. It will now be incredibly hard for me to remain long the few shares that I have. In the meantime, I will ride the puts I just bought last week anticipating CAT to fail at 200DMA resistance. Going forward, I will likely get even more aggressive on my put buying on CAT.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Chanos<\/a>
Chanos knocks CAT off its 200DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Apple (AAPL)<\/strong>
\nYes, my favorite charting (and trading) stock. Hopefully, you are not getting too tired of my constant chatter on it. Anyway, AAPL had another strong start to a week, but it is clearly struggling to break through upper resistance at the convergence of the old $532 pivot and the 50DMA. I took a chance and held onto my calls for the start of the week play; I am looking for the outside shot that AAPL manages to gap higher by Friday. I bought my puts a little early and they are essentially worthless right now.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Apple<\/a>
Apple struggles at resistance again<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

SolarCity (SCTY) (and Tesla (TSLA))<\/strong>
\nSCTY broke out and started traveling the upper-Bollinger Band almost according to “plan.” Goldman Sachs (GS) ruined things by slapping TSLA with an average target price across three scenarios of $86. In sympathy, fellow Elon Musk stock SCTY came tumbling down. I stretched out this play by holding onto my July $45 calls. Now the race to the buzzer is really hot. I am not likely to win on this one. Note how TSLA came roaring back on extremely high volume. The run on that one is far from over.<\/p>\n


\n
\"TSLA<\/a>
TSLA tumbles hard. A big comeback did not help SCTY as much as the tumble hurt….<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"SCTY<\/a>
SCTY loses orbit velocity and peels off the upper Bollinger Band.<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Baidu (BIDU)<\/strong>
\nThis was the HUGE win of the week. The BIDU pop was a great reminder of how it can pay to be patient, stick to the technicals, and execute on the analysis. The moment of truth on BIDU<\/a> transformed into a major breakout. The very next day, the stock zipped above 200DMA resistance and sliced through $100. On Tuesday, the stock gapped up about 6% on news of an acquisition, and I sold my call options into the open. They expire on Friday, so need to keep pressing my luck on that one.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Is<\/a>
Is BIDU’s long-standing downtrend FINALLY coming to an end?!<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Google (GOOG)<\/strong>
\nGOOG reports earnings Thursday evening. For some reason, I do not feel particularly compelled to speculate on the earnings. I still believe that GOOG is heading soon to $1000, but I do not expect earnings to propel it there in one day. So, I am thinking I am fine waiting out the post-earnings reaction and making a move from there. Hopefully, I get a trigger-happy sell-off…down to the 20 or 50DMA would be perfect.The stock has conveniently stalled just like the S&P 500 the past three days around the former intraday all-time high.<\/p>\n


\n
\"Is<\/a>
Is GOOG setting up a coiled spring or will it disappoint? Hard to tell!<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using <\/strong><\/a>freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: long SCTY calls; long CAT shares and puts; long AAPL shares, calls, and puts<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[368,219,43,599,3,135,62],"tags":[250,534,759,760,64,63,231,230,65,1170,16,1193,226,1597,888,887],"class_list":["post-18858","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-automotive","category-high-tech","category-industrial-sector","category-internet","category-solar-energy","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-apple-inc","tag-baidu","tag-bidu","tag-cat","tag-caterpillar-inc","tag-goog","tag-google","tag-sp-500","tag-scty","tag-solar-stocks","tag-solarcity","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis","tag-tesla-motors-inc","tag-tsla"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (July 17, 2013) - Small Stall At All-Time Intraday High; Chart Review Madness - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/17\/t2108-update-130717\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (July 17, 2013) - Small Stall At All-Time Intraday High; Chart Review Madness - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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