{"id":18818,"date":"2013-07-17T19:27:50","date_gmt":"2013-07-18T02:27:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=18818"},"modified":"2013-07-17T19:27:50","modified_gmt":"2013-07-18T02:27:50","slug":"an-uneven-recovery-from-the-interest-rate-blues","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/17\/an-uneven-recovery-from-the-interest-rate-blues\/","title":{"rendered":"An Uneven Recovery from the Interest Rate Blues"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 17, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1553602-an-uneven-recovery-from-the-interest-rate-blues\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released <a href=\"http:\/\/www.rba.gov.au\/monetary-policy\/rba-board-minutes\/2013\/02072013.html\" target=\"_blank\">the minutes from its monetary policy decision meeting earlier this month<\/a>. It contains some great detail on the RBA&#8217;s assessment of global financial conditions. Of particular interest to me was the RBA&#8217;s observations on the Federal Reserve&#8217;s recent discussion of policy normalization and the market&#8217;s subsequent reactions&#8230; {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The S&#038;P 500 (SPY) <a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/12\/t2108-update-130712\/\" target=\"_blank\">has now fully recovered from this sell-off with new all-time closing highs<\/a>, seemingly affirming the fact that the Fed said nothing new about the direction and conditions for monetary policy. The U.S. stock market stands tall in its interest rate resilience. The recovery from the interest rate blues has been uneven and perhaps speaks volumes on where the vulnerabilities exist if rates manage to continue climbing.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Only time will tell the full significance of the ability of any given stock, ETF, or sector to recover from interest rate blues. Of the group mentioned above, only the S&#038;P 500 was strong going into the interest rate blues. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><strong>Related charts&#8230;<\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18843\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18843\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_SP500vs10Year.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_SP500vs10Year.png\" alt=\"The performance of the S&amp;P 500 (red) has sharply diverged from the 10-Year Treasury yield (blue)\" width=\"550\" height=\"330\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18843\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_SP500vs10Year.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_SP500vs10Year-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18843\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The performance of the S&#038;P 500 (red) has sharply diverged from the 10-Year Treasury yield (blue)<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?graph_id=129349&#038;category_id=0\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_18842\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18842\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_DXY0.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_DXY0.png\" alt=\"Weekly view shows the general trading range for the U.S. dollar index for the last 18 months\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18842\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_DXY0.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_DXY0-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18842\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Weekly view shows the general trading range for the U.S. dollar index for the last 18 months<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18841\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18841\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_ASX200_XJO.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_ASX200_XJO.png\" alt=\"The Australian stock market traded in negative territory during the sell-off\" width=\"550\" height=\"378\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18841\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_ASX200_XJO.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_ASX200_XJO-300x206.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18841\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian stock market traded in negative territory during the sell-off<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18844\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18844\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130717_AUDUSD.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130717_AUDUSD.png\" alt=\"The Australian dollar has plunged for almost three straight months versus the U.S. dollar\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18844\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130717_AUDUSD.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130717_AUDUSD-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18844\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The Australian dollar has plunged for almost three straight months versus the U.S. dollar<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_18840\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18840\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_EEM.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_EEM.png\" alt=\"The 2013 downtrend in EEM remains well intact\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18840\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_EEM.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_EEM-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18840\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">The 2013 downtrend in EEM remains well intact<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><figure id=\"attachment_18839\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18839\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_EWT.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_EWT.png\" alt=\"Taiwanese stocks have out-performed the general EEM ETF\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18839\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_EWT.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130716_EWT-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18839\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Taiwanese stocks have out-performed the general EEM ETF<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.freestockcharts.com\/\" target=\"_blank\">FreeStockCharts.com<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 17, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1553602-an-uneven-recovery-from-the-interest-rate-blues\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long EEM puts, net short Australian dollar<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 17, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes from its monetary policy decision meeting earlier this month. It contains some great detail on the RBA&#8217;s assessment of global financial conditions. &#8230; <a title=\"An Uneven Recovery from the Interest Rate Blues\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/17\/an-uneven-recovery-from-the-interest-rate-blues\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[386,59,58,20,21],"tags":[308,310,1195,1202,1595,309,115,203,448],"class_list":["post-18818","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-australia","category-economy","category-federal-reserve","category-forex","category-u-s-dollar","tag-audusd","tag-australian-dollar","tag-eem","tag-ewt","tag-federal-reserve","tag-fxa","tag-monetary-policy","tag-reserve-bank-of-australia","tag-rydex-currencyshares-australian-dollar-trust-etf"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>An Uneven Recovery from the Interest Rate Blues - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/17\/an-uneven-recovery-from-the-interest-rate-blues\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"An Uneven Recovery from the Interest Rate Blues - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 17, 2013. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released the minutes from its monetary policy decision meeting earlier this month. It contains some great detail on the RBA&#8217;s assessment of global financial conditions. ... 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