{"id":18776,"date":"2013-07-20T08:26:22","date_gmt":"2013-07-20T15:26:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=18776"},"modified":"2013-07-20T08:26:22","modified_gmt":"2013-07-20T15:26:22","slug":"jim-cramers-misplaced-worries-about-housing","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/20\/jim-cramers-misplaced-worries-about-housing\/","title":{"rendered":"Jim Cramer&#8217;s Misplaced Worries About Housing"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 14, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1547842-jim-cramer-s-housing-worries-come-from-an-overly-optimistic-outlook\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>I do not follow TheStreet.com&#8217;s Jim Cramer as closely as I did many years ago, but every now and then something pops up that manages to catch my interest. The above quote is from a piece where Cramer basically put the entire burden of the economic recovery and the stock market rally on the collective back of housing. This assessment is surprising n several levels after looking closely at the data.<\/p>\n<p>First of all, national employment in residential construction is still at depressed levels. A LOT of upside potential remains here.<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18780\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18780\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_EmploymentResidentialConstruction.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18780\" alt=\"All Employees: Construction: Residential Building, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_EmploymentResidentialConstruction.png\" width=\"550\" height=\"330\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_EmploymentResidentialConstruction.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_EmploymentResidentialConstruction-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18780\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">All Employees: Construction: Residential Building, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18781\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18781\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_EmploymentResidentialSpecialtyTradeContractor.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18781\" alt=\"All Employees: Construction: Residential Specialty Trade Contractors, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_EmploymentResidentialSpecialtyTradeContractor.png\" width=\"550\" height=\"330\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_EmploymentResidentialSpecialtyTradeContractor.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_EmploymentResidentialSpecialtyTradeContractor-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18781\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">All Employees: Construction: Residential Specialty Trade Contractors, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/search?st=all+employee+residential+construction\" target=\"_blank\">St. Louis Federal Reserve<\/a><\/strong><\/center>Based only on national employment, there was never a reason to celebrate the housing recovery. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>I agree with Cramer about the impact of poor housing-related numbers. The recovery is just getting started after lagging the post-recession recovery for about two years. The recent sell-off in housing-related stocks was a palpable fallout from <a href=\"http:\/\/static.cdn-seekingalpha.com\/uploads\/2013\/7\/10\/saupload_130709_30YearMortgageRate_thumb1.jpg\" target=\"_blank\">the recent spike in mortgage rates<\/a>. However, <strong>homebuilder<\/strong> stocks have NOT fully recovered from the &#8220;May 22 downturn.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18777\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18777\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130712_XHBvsSP500.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18777\" alt=\"XHB has spent most of the year out-performing the S&amp;P 500 but the two indices are about even now year-to-date\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130712_XHBvsSP500.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130712_XHBvsSP500.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130712_XHBvsSP500-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18777\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">XHB has spent most of the year out-performing the S&amp;P 500 but the two indices are about even now year-to-date<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The following list shows how poorly homebuilder stocks have fared since May 22nd. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>ALL the homebuilders are severely lagging the S&#038;P 500 since May 22nd; the S&#038;P 500 is at all-time highs and 1.5% above its May 22nd close. Only 2 of these homebuilders bottomed when the S&#038;P 500 bottomed. The rest have only bounced off lows in the previous week. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Finally, calling housing a &#8220;linchpin&#8221; of the recovery is a bit premature. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18792\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18792\" style=\"width: 473px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_GrowthRates_GDPvsResidential.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_GrowthRates_GDPvsResidential.png\" alt=\"Comparison of U.S. Annual Real Growth Rates: Overall GDP vs. Residential Gross Private Domestic Investment\" width=\"483\" height=\"291\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18792\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_GrowthRates_GDPvsResidential.png 483w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/07\/130714_GrowthRates_GDPvsResidential-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 483px) 100vw, 483px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18792\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Comparison of U.S. Annual Real Growth Rates: Overall GDP vs. Residential Gross Private Domestic Investment<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>The biggest contributor to GDP is of course personal expenditures. Spending on furnishings and durable household equipment is only a very small portion of these expenditures. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>The quarterly and annualized double-digit growth rates in residential gross private domestic investment have only contributed a small part to the overall GDP growth rate. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>{snip} I still plan to use &#8220;worrying episodes&#8221; as opportunities to increase exposure to homebuilder stocks at lower prices. Cramer is right to worry, but the worries are misplaced given they seem to be coming from an over-optimistic perch.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 14, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1547842-jim-cramer-s-housing-worries-come-from-an-overly-optimistic-outlook\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: long TPH<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 14, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} I do not follow TheStreet.com&#8217;s Jim Cramer as closely as I did many years ago, but every now and then something pops up that manages to catch my interest. The &#8230; <a title=\"Jim Cramer&#8217;s Misplaced Worries About Housing\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/20\/jim-cramers-misplaced-worries-about-housing\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[59,35],"tags":[39,1593,713,545,383],"class_list":["post-18776","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-housing","tag-homebuilder","tag-housing","tag-jim-cramer","tag-spdr-sp-homebuilders-etf","tag-xhb"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Jim Cramer&#039;s Misplaced Worries About Housing - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/07\/20\/jim-cramers-misplaced-worries-about-housing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Jim Cramer&#039;s Misplaced Worries About Housing - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on July 14, 2013. 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Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} I do not follow TheStreet.com&#8217;s Jim Cramer as closely as I did many years ago, but every now and then something pops up that manages to catch my interest. The ... 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