{"id":18377,"date":"2013-09-06T17:03:23","date_gmt":"2013-09-07T00:03:23","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=18377"},"modified":"2013-09-06T17:03:23","modified_gmt":"2013-09-07T00:03:23","slug":"confirming-waning-momentum-market-ignores-bullish-toll-brothers-report","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/06\/confirming-waning-momentum-market-ignores-bullish-toll-brothers-report\/","title":{"rendered":"Confirming Waning Momentum: Market Ignores Bullish Toll Brothers Report"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 17, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1504962-waning-momentum-market-continues-to-ignore-bullish-toll-brothers-report\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In September of last year, Toll Brothers (TOL) printed a near 7-year high. It was the culmination of an amazing 12-month run that took the stock up 164% from a retest of 2008 and 2009 lows. It was one of the more incredible (relative) turn-arounds in the homebuilder space.<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18430\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18430\" style=\"width: 490px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/130614_TOL.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18430\" alt=\"After a rapid price recovery, TOL stalls out under 7-year highs\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/130614_TOL.png\" width=\"500\" height=\"350\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/130614_TOL.png 500w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/130614_TOL-300x210.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18430\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">After a rapid price recovery, TOL stalls out under 7-year highs<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>{snip} It seems in TOL&#8217;s case, the market has priced in the housing recovery in one quick burst &#8211; At least that is an interpretation consistent with the stock&#8217;s inability to rally further on outright bullish earnings news.<\/p>\n<p>As a point of comparison, here are the performances of other publicly traded homebuilders. {snip}<br \/>\nNotice the remarkable consistency in the overall pricing of the housing recovery from the lows relative to the bubble peak even as year-to-date performances have varied greatly. TOL experienced a large share of its recovery before this year while other homebuilders are just now catching up. I suspect that as a group, the 40%+ price recovery is a cap for now until a fresh positive catalyst appears.<\/p>\n<p>I read through <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1455221-toll-brothers-management-discusses-q2-2013-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single\" target=\"_blank\">the Seeking Alpha transcript of TOL&#8217;s earnings conference call<\/a> looking for a smoking gun to explain the muted reaction. In the transcript, I found a lot of bullish news and encouraging signs for the housing market, but no clear sign of any warning. I also found a lot of wary analysts probing for hints of what to expect NEXT year. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18422\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18422\" style=\"width: 540px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/130616_30YearUSMortgageAvg.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18422\" alt=\"In two weeks, mortgage rates have reversed a year's worth of declines\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/130616_30YearUSMortgageAvg.png\" width=\"550\" height=\"330\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/130616_30YearUSMortgageAvg.png 550w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/130616_30YearUSMortgageAvg-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18422\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">In two weeks, mortgage rates have reversed a year&#8217;s worth of declines<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/research.stlouisfed.org\/fred2\/graph\/?id=MORTGAGE30US\" target=\"_blank\">Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis<\/a><\/strong><\/center><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>With these data points as backdrop, I took notes on <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1455221-toll-brothers-management-discusses-q2-2013-results-earnings-call-transcripthttp:\/\/\" target=\"_blank\">the TOL conference call<\/a>. The following is not a comprehensive summary; it represents the nuggets I found of most interest. They all point to a very robust business for TOL for the rest of 2013 and into 2014.<\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 17, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1504962-waning-momentum-market-continues-to-ignore-bullish-toll-brothers-report\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 17, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) In September of last year, Toll Brothers (TOL) printed a near 7-year high. It was the culmination of an amazing 12-month run that took the stock up 164% from a retest &#8230; <a title=\"Confirming Waning Momentum: Market Ignores Bullish Toll Brothers Report\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/06\/confirming-waning-momentum-market-ignores-bullish-toll-brothers-report\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[220,35],"tags":[1593,37,36],"class_list":["post-18377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-earnings","category-housing","tag-housing","tag-tol","tag-toll-brothers-inc"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Confirming Waning Momentum: Market Ignores Bullish Toll Brothers Report - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/06\/confirming-waning-momentum-market-ignores-bullish-toll-brothers-report\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Confirming Waning Momentum: Market Ignores Bullish Toll Brothers Report - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on June 17, 2013. 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