{"id":18229,"date":"2013-06-04T21:01:09","date_gmt":"2013-06-05T04:01:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=18229"},"modified":"2013-06-04T21:04:21","modified_gmt":"2013-06-05T04:04:21","slug":"t2108-update-130604","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/06\/04\/t2108-update-130604\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (June 4, 2013) – Missed Opportunity"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 42.9% (quasi-oversold)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 16.3 (flat from previous day and a second strong fade)
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold. Next short-term opportunity: breakdown below bear\/bull dividing line and\/or on retest of short-term downtrend line
\nActive T2108 periods<\/strong>: Day #32 of over 40% (overperiod), Day #3 under 50% (underperiod), Day #9 under 70% (underperiod)<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nIn the last T2108 Update<\/a> I set out the conditions for initiating a fresh position in ProShares Ultra S&P 500 (SSO) puts as a retest of the growing downtrend from all-time highs on the S&P 500 and\/or a breakdown below the bear\/bull dividing line. Today, the S&P 500 (SPY) rose slightly early in the day, not quite reaching the downtrend line but hitting and then fading from the 20DMA. Given the T2108 Trading Model (TTM) predicted a down day for today, it occurred to me that I had a good enough case to launch into some SSO puts. By the time I moved to execute, the index was already back in negative territory. It was a missed opportunity!<\/p>\n


\n
\"Another<\/a>
Another picture perfect bounce; this time matched by picture-perfect resistance at the 20DMA<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/p>\n

\"30-minute<\/a>
30-minute chart shows how easy it was to miss the fade opportunity and how gingerly the S&P 500 tested support<\/figcaption><\/figure>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

T2108 also plunged during the fade on the S&P 500. So, instead of browsing for puts, I ran the TTM to get a projection for quasi-oversold conditions (do I now need a model for three down days in a row?). I tweeted the results: a 56% chance of a rally tomorrow. These odds are not high enough to justify a trade (I prefer at least 70%). We may get yet another chance to play a quasi-oversold bounce as the bear\/bull dividing line is looking more tenuous with the S&P 500 tentatively bouncing perfectly from this support for a 2nd day in a row. The perfect scenario will be a quick, deep plunge that takes the index to\/toward the 50DMA. Such a retest will greatly reduce the downside risk of playing a bounce from quasi-oversold conditions. I will not even need to run the TTM under such conditions (and probably would not have time to do so!) given the S&P 500 will be trading well below the lower-Bollinger Band at that point.<\/p>\n

One curious oddity for trading today. For 2013, Tuesday has had a strong upside bias with an average performance of +0.50%. When Tuesday closes down, Wednesday has an upward bias with a 0.25% return. HOWEVER, never this year has Tuesday closed -0.50% or lower. So, all bets are off – this is uncharted territory on a daily basis for this year. (For details and stats see my post “Daily S&P 500 Trading: Monday Under-Performance, Tuesday Out-Performance And Other Patterns<\/a>“).<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[135,511,1154,62],"tags":[492,65,446,226,1597],"class_list":["post-18229","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-stock-market-trading","category-support","category-t2108-model","category-technical-analysis","tag-proshares-ultra-sp-500","tag-sp-500","tag-sso","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (June 4, 2013) - Missed Opportunity - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/06\/04\/t2108-update-130604\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (June 4, 2013) - Missed Opportunity - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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