{"id":17954,"date":"2013-09-07T21:16:49","date_gmt":"2013-09-08T04:16:49","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=17954"},"modified":"2013-09-07T21:16:49","modified_gmt":"2013-09-08T04:16:49","slug":"trulias-new-bubble-watch-nudges-california-and-texas-housing-into-overvalued-territory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/07\/trulias-new-bubble-watch-nudges-california-and-texas-housing-into-overvalued-territory\/","title":{"rendered":"Trulia&#8217;s New &#8220;Bubble Watch&#8221; Nudges California and Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 15, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1437491-trulias-new-bubble-watch-nudges-california-and-texas-housing-into-overvalued-territory\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p>In Bubble Watch, Trulia Chief Economist Jed Kolko, Ph.D. explains that housing is not back in bubble territory based on incomes (which determine how much people can pay), rents (which determine &#8220;&#8230;how much people value housing even if they won\u2019t benefit from price appreciation&#8221;), and historical prices which provide an anchor for assessing trends. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Putting it all together, Kolko estimates that nationwide, U.S. homes are still 7% undervalued. Ninety-one of America&#8217;s 100 largest metro areas remain undervalued. Of course, since real estate markets are local, these aggregated statistics hide some important extremes. Cities like Las Vegas, Detroit, and Cleveland are undervalued by -20% or worse. Four of the top seven overvalued cities\/regions are located in California. The other three are in Texas. <\/p>\n<p>{snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure style=\"width: 600px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/trends.truliablog.com\/files\/2013\/05\/TruilaBubbleWatch_LineGraph_2013Q2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/trends.truliablog.com\/files\/2013\/05\/TruilaBubbleWatch_LineGraph_2013Q2.jpg\" width=\"610\" height=\"493\" alt=\"Estimated over\/undervaluation of U.S. housing\" class \/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-caption-text\">Estimated over\/undervaluation of U.S. housing<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<strong>Source: <a href=\"http:\/\/trends.truliablog.com\/2013\/05\/trulia-bubble-watch\/\" target=\"_blank\">Trulia Bubble Watch for May, 2013<\/a><\/strong><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>I also checked out <a href=\"http:\/\/trends.truliablog.com\/vis\/rentvsbuy-winter-2013\/\" target=\"_blank\">Trulia&#8217;s rent versus buy calculator<\/a>. According to Trulia&#8217;s model, there is not a single metro area in the country where it is cheaper to rent than buy, not even in California or Texas. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>So, overall, there is no housing bubble in the U.S. Kolko expects housing demand to soon cool down as prices continue to rise, investors lose interest as cheap properties become more scarce, and interest rates go up. {snip}<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of interest rates, rates crept higher over the past two weeks. {snip}<\/p>\n<p><center><br \/>\n<figure id=\"attachment_17958\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-17958\" style=\"width: 620px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130514_10YearTreasury.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130514_10YearTreasury.png\" alt=\"10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate\" width=\"630\" height=\"378\" class=\"size-full wp-image-17958\" srcset=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130514_10YearTreasury.png 630w, https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/05\/130514_10YearTreasury-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-17958\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate<\/figcaption><\/figure><br \/>\n<\/center><\/p>\n<p>Be careful out there!<\/p>\n<p><strong>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 15, 2013. <a href=\"http:\/\/seekingalpha.com\/article\/1437491-trulias-new-bubble-watch-nudges-california-and-texas-housing-into-overvalued-territory\" target=\"_blank\">Click here to read the entire piece<\/a>.)<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Full disclosure: no positions<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 15, 2013. Click here to read the entire piece.) {snip} In Bubble Watch, Trulia Chief Economist Jed Kolko, Ph.D. explains that housing is not back in bubble territory based on incomes (which determine how much people can pay), rents (which &#8230; <a title=\"Trulia&#8217;s New &#8220;Bubble Watch&#8221; Nudges California and Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/07\/trulias-new-bubble-watch-nudges-california-and-texas-housing-into-overvalued-territory\/\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[35],"tags":[1593],"class_list":["post-17954","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-housing","tag-housing"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Trulia&#039;s New &quot;Bubble Watch&quot; Nudges California and Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/09\/07\/trulias-new-bubble-watch-nudges-california-and-texas-housing-into-overvalued-territory\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trulia&#039;s New &quot;Bubble Watch&quot; Nudges California and Texas Housing Into Overvalued Territory - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(This is an excerpt from an article I originally published on Seeking Alpha on May 15, 2013. 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