{"id":17944,"date":"2013-05-14T22:48:50","date_gmt":"2013-05-15T05:48:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/?p=17944"},"modified":"2013-05-14T22:53:11","modified_gmt":"2013-05-15T05:53:11","slug":"t2108-update-130514","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/05\/14\/t2108-update-130514\/","title":{"rendered":"T2108 Update (May 14, 2013) – Surge Continues As Shorts Continue Suffering from Target Practice"},"content":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page<\/a>. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary<\/a> on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades are posted on twitter using the #120trade hashtag<\/a>)<\/p>\n

T2108 Status<\/strong>: 73.5% (8th overbought day)
\nVIX Status<\/strong>: 12.8
\nGeneral (Short-term) Trading Call<\/strong>: Hold<\/p>\n

Reference Charts<\/strong> (click for view of last 6 months from Stockcharts.com):
\nS&P 500<\/a> or SPY<\/a>
\nSDS<\/a> (ProShares UltraShort S&P500)
\nU.S. Dollar Index<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVIX<\/a> (volatility index)
\nVXX<\/a> (iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN)
\nEWG<\/a> (iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund)
\nCAT<\/a> (Caterpillar)<\/p>\n

Commentary<\/strong>
\nSo much for a boring week<\/a>. The last 4-days of lackluster trading had finally convinced me that this week would not provide the expected fireworks. <\/p>\n

The S&P 500 (SPY) surged higher 1.0%. This ended my hope that a “do nothing” prediction from the T2108 Trading Model could represent an opportunity to fade the initial, opening direction of the S&P 500. On the positive side, at least the model did not scream “sell.” May’s month-to-date gain of 3.3% after two calendar weeks makes it all the more likely that May-sellers will be full of regret come June. As a reminder, I expected May to be just fine<\/a> but offered up some “just-in-case” hedges; Caterpillar (CAT) triggered. The euro (FXE) also triggered with a break below its 50DMA.<\/p>\n

You bulls who bought the breakout above 1600 (my advice to the particularly bullish out there) to new all-time highs are doing well. Keep holding but move the stops up to 1620. This level is just below the brief 4-day consolidation that preceded today’s rally. A close below this level finally gets me buying SSO puts as a play to fade the overbought period. My window for getting bearish is rapidly closing. As a reminder, after this week, I will be more focused on buying dips than on following a breakdown.<\/p>\n

I do not have time to post charts, but I do want to note how heavily-shorted stocks have soared over the past month and in many cases all year. It seems that these stocks are getting targeted and providing fertile ground for traders playing catch-up with the overall stock market. You can click the links of these stocks for their 6-month charts on StockCharts.com. The percentages next to the stock ticker represent the shares shorts as a percentage of float:<\/p>\n

ANGI<\/a>: 21.9%
\ntarget=”_blank”>APOL<\/a>: 20.8% (a relative latecomer to the campaign of short squeezes. The stock is lifting off a recent bottom and was up 9.1% today)
\nFSLR<\/a>: 33.4%
\nGMCR<\/a>: 37.9%
\nNFLX<\/a>: 24.4%
\nSCTY<\/a>: 16.6%
\nSODA<\/a>: 43.7%
\nTSLA<\/a>: 44.1% (stock went exponential post-earnings – this is a classic chart for the ages!)<\/p>\n

All these stocks have gone “nuts” recently. This is clearly NOT a market for shorting, further validating my approach to avoid SSO puts until the market “proves” it is time to load them up.<\/p>\n

Seeing this list makes Apple’s (AAPL) relative under-performance to the general stock market stick out even more. Today, AAPL dropped 2.4%<\/a> “out of nowhere.” The $470 level turned out to be the stiff resistance I was afraid of. I had hoped that AAPL’s post-earnings momentum could soon enough break the March high and take AAPL to $500, but it seems that day will remain very elusive.<\/p>\n

Finally, note that Worden has FINALLY introduced intraday quotes for T2108 (and other T2* indicators). This is a great advance because it now allows me to know when T2108 is flipping any thresholds BEFORE the closing bell. Once there are enough data, I will change the T2108 charts I post from line charts to candlestick.<\/p>\n


\nDaily T2108 vs the S&P 500<\/strong>
\n\"T2108<\/p>\n

Black line: T2108 (measured on the right); Green line: S&P 500 (for comparative purposes)
\nRed line: T2108 Overbought (70%); Blue line: T2108 Oversold (20%)
\n<\/center><\/p>\n


\nWeekly T2108<\/strong>
\n\"Weekly
\n*All charts created using freestockcharts.com<\/a><\/strong> unless otherwise stated<\/a>
\n<\/center><\/p>\n

Related links:<\/strong>
\nThe T2108 Resource Page<\/a>
\nExpanded daily chart of T2108 versus the S&P 500<\/a>
\nExpanded weekly chart of T2108 <\/a><\/p>\n

Be careful out there!<\/p>\n

Full disclosure: net short euro; long CAT shares and puts; long AAPL shares, calls, and puts; long TSLA calls (PURE speculation!), ANGI calls, <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. It helps to identify extremes in market sentiment that are highly likely to reverse. To learn more about it, see my T2108 Resource Page. You can follow real-time T2108 commentary on twitter using the #T2108 hashtag. T2108-related trades and other trades … Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,219,135,62],"tags":[250,1167,534,63,376,28,447,404,65,226,1597],"class_list":["post-17944","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-forex","category-high-tech","category-stock-market-trading","category-technical-analysis","tag-aapl","tag-apol","tag-apple-inc","tag-caterpillar-inc","tag-eurusd","tag-euro","tag-fxe","tag-netflix","tag-sp-500","tag-t2108","tag-technical-analysis"],"yoast_head":"\nT2108 Update (May 14, 2013) - Surge Continues As Shorts Continue Suffering from Target Practice - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/drduru.com\/onetwentytwo\/2013\/05\/14\/t2108-update-130514\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"T2108 Update (May 14, 2013) - Surge Continues As Shorts Continue Suffering from Target Practice - ONE-TWENTY TWO: Trading Financial Markets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"(T2108 measures the percentage of stocks trading above their respective 40-day moving averages [DMAs]. 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